THE DRAGON SNORTS BUT NEW DELHI REMAINS THE OSTRICH

NEW DELHI: Debates in New Delhi about the rather aggressive Chinese intrusions in the Chumar region of eastern Ladakh are redundant. It is increasingly clear that the incursions were in the knowledge of President Xi Jinping even during his three day visit to India. Efforts by Indian officialdom to cast the blame for the incursions on sections of the PLA are meaningless as President Xi is recognised within China and outside as a leader in complete control

Besides his statement just after completion of the visit to India directing his troops to be prepared for a regional war, is a clear indicator that boundary issues are foremost on his agenda and he prepared to take the controversy to its logical limit if so required.

"Headquarters of PLA forces must have absolute loyalty and firm faith in the Communist Party of China, guarantee a smooth chain of command and make sure all decisions from the central leadership are fully implemented," Xi who is chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) and the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC).

"Headquarters of all PLA forces should improve their combat readiness and sharpen their ability to win a regional war in the age of information technology," he added within a week of returning from New Delhi in the midst of a two week continuing controversy about Chinese movements at the border with Ladakh. India reported incursions running three kilometres deep in the Chumar region, with the Line of Actual Control (LAC) being kept active by Chinese troop activity before, during and after the presidential visit.

Xi is perceived across the world as being one of the most powerful leaders after Deng Xiaoping and a man in complete control. Efforts by Indian officialdom to play down the border intrusions coinciding with the visit were further negated by the Chinese President’s remarks about a ‘regional war.’ Interestingly while India regarded these remarks as being directed at her, Beijing remained deliberate vague in almost the same style as in Japan where Prime Minister Narendra Modi had spoken of the “expansionist” plans of a country seen by the world as China, but without naming it.

Xi, 62, is a President in complete command of the PLA as well. He reshuffled the postings of the generals at the top after coming to power, and removed and even prosecuted top military officers for corruption. To contradict speculation on the President’s authority, PLA chief General Fang Fenghui issued a statement saying that the PLA forces follow Xi’s directives, and that all operations would be updated to meet the goals set by the Chinese President in his capacity as the Chairman of CMC.

New Delhi tried to gain some brownie points from Xi’s decision not to visit Pakistan at the time. although this was clearly directed not by Indian sensitivities but by the protests and the political chaos in Pakistan at that time. His visit to Sri Lanka is being seen by diplomats as more successful than the three day visit to India where he whittled down investment from the expected to 100 billion dollars to a meagre 20 billion dollars. It is significant that China did not even try and meet Japan’s promised investment of 35 billion dollars.

The vocal strategic establishment in India is divided between a black and white approach towards China, with very few looking at the nuances. The “keep a distance from China” is always at war with the “China is a friend” approach, with most senior bureaucrats forming the pool for the first and academics supporting the second. Some exceptions were earlier National Securiy Advisor Brajesh Mishra and former foreign secretary and NSA Shiv Shankar Menon both of whom were in favour of a more nuanced approach based on improving relations while keeping options open. Current NSA Ajit Doval is seen to be more suspicious than his predecessors about China and its ambitions in the region with Prime Minister Narendra Modi seemingly persuaded to keep the ‘bhai bhai’ approach in check.

One of the primary reasons why the dragon has snorted is the PM’s Japan visit with the adverse reference to China and its ambitious expansionist plans for the region. Beijing in its policies reflected over the past years is prepared to give all the countries it pursues trade and strategic relations with a very long rope but draws the line on some key issues, one of these being Japan and its efforts along with the US to draw countries into an Asian cooperation against China. This thus becomes a ‘no no’ for China with President Xi certainly not one to accept adverse references about his government and country’s intent on the virtual eve of his visit to a country.

The border issues that President Xi even during his visit to India referred to while advocating a solution remain a constant in Beijing policy towards India."Since the boundary is yet to be demarcated, there could be instances of transgressions and both sides are fully capable of resolving the issues, through border-related mechanisms, so that such incidents have little impact on ties,” Xi said while in New Delhi. China has always demonstrated acute sensitivity over Arunachal Pradesh and Tibet with protest demonstrations by Tibetans, pandering to the Dalai Lama by New Delhi always drawing irate comments from Beijing. However, despite severe provocations in the past like the Dalai Lama’s visit to Arunachal Pradesh under the UPA government, China has always stopped short of advocating war as it has, for reasons still being deciphered, this time. It instead attacked the Dalai Lama for trying to wreck India-China relations, criticising the visit as undermining its’ territorial integrity.

Chinese policy towards India has always been a mix of economic and business interests along with strategic issues. President Xi during his visit to India spoke of supporting a “bigger role” for India in the UN Security Council but the applause drowned the more significant part of the statement that was “when India settles the border dispute with China.” China lays claim to 90,000 km of land on the eastern sector of the border. India disputes this claiming that China occupies 38,000 km of territory in Aksai Chin plateau in the western Himalayas.

President Xi thus managed to keep the focus on the border disputes during his visit to India as well. This along with his remarks about a regional war could be indicative of a shift in policy with Beijing pursuing a more proactive policy in terms of resolving the issues, than the more laid back approach that was in motion since Vajpayee’s time till date.

India will clearly have to re-assess and re-work its approach keeping the authority and personality of the Chinese President in mind. The international media, unlike the Indian press that is more used to being fed foreign policy assessments, has been describing him as China’s most powerful man who is different from his predecessors being more adventurous and daring. For instance under his charge China declared administrative control over a swatch of airspace in the East China Sea without warning. Tensions continue even now with Japan, US and South Korea aircraft being met with Chinese fighter jets leading to a status quo of sorts.

A Wikileaks cable of the US State Department earlier described Xi as “redder than red.” He comes from an elite Communist family, is well educated, and has worked his way up the ranks. He has made anti-corruption a mission and is known for frugality. However, he remains an enigma within and without, perceived as a man who can take decisions and back these with action. Clearly someone who needs to be understood by New Delhi and dealt with accordingly.