US President Donald Trump’s National Security Strategy (NSS) for the year 2025 signals a decline in the importance of India as compared with the NSS he presented in 2017 during his first term.
In 2017, Pakistan was severely castigated for fostering terrorism. But in the 2025 document, there is neither any mention of terrorism nor appreciation of the tremendous improvement in US-Pakistan relations since the air war with India in May.
In the 2017 NSS, Trump had envisaged a significant role for India in America’s economic and security scheme for the Indo-Pacific region.
“We will deepen our strategic partnership with India and support its leadership role in Indian Ocean security and throughout the broader region,” he had said.
“We will encourage the economic integration of Central and South Asia to promote prosperity and economic linkages that will bolster connectivity and trade. And we will encourage India to increase its economic assistance in the region,” he added.
But the 2025 NSS document assigns only a limited role for India. The references to India are limited to bilateral economic relations and its role in Indo-Pacific security.
“We must continue to improve commercial (and other) relations with India to encourage New Delhi to contribute to Indo-Pacific security, including through continued quadrilateral cooperation with Australia, Japan, and the United States (“the Quad”),” the 2025 document said.
Justifying the American interest in the Indo-Pacific region, the NSS 2025 said- “The Indo-Pacific is already, and will continue to be, among the next century’s key economic and geopolitical battlegrounds. To thrive at home, we must successfully compete there—and we are.”
But to the great discomfiture of Indians, the 2025 NSS laid much emphasis on curbing immigration into the US. Indians are the second largest immigrant community in the US after the Mexicans and are a substantial part of immigration into the US. About 5 million Indians in the US are legal immigrants while 700,000 are illegals under threat of deportation.
“The era of mass migration is over,” the NSS for 2025 declared.
“Who a country admits into its borders—in what numbers and from where—will inevitably define the future of that nation. Any country that considers itself sovereign has the right and duty to define its future. Throughout history, sovereign nations prohibited uncontrolled migration and granted citizenship only rarely to foreigners, who also had to meet demanding criteria.”
“The West’s experience over the past decades vindicates this enduring wisdom. In countries throughout the world, mass migration has strained domestic resources, increased violence and other crime, weakened social cohesion, distorted labour markets, and undermined national security. The era of mass migration must end,” the document said.
Indians’ migration to the US rests on the primacy that the US has traditionally given to meritocracy. But Trump does not want meritocracy to be the overriding criterion because it eats into opportunities for locals.
“We cannot allow meritocracy to be used as a justification to open America’s labour market to the world in the name of finding global talent that undercuts American workers. In our every principle and action, America and Americans must always come first,” the 2025 document said.
In September this year, Trump stunned the tech community in India by announcing a 50-fold hike in the cost of an Hi-B Visa (the skilled worker permit) to USD 100,000.
“Chaos followed: Silicon Valley firms urged staff not to travel outside the country, overseas workers scrambled for flights, and immigration lawyers worked overtime to decode the order. The policy effectively shuttered the H-1B pipeline that, for three decades, had powered the American dream for millions of Indians and, more importantly, supplied the lifeblood of talent to US industries,” a Reuters report said.
“The Hi-B pipeline reshaped both countries. For India, the H-1B became a vehicle of aspiration: small-town coders turned dollar earners, families vaulted into the middle class, and entire industries - from airlines to real estate - catered to a new class of globe-trotting Indians. And for the US, it meant an infusion of talent. Indian-origin executives run Google, Microsoft and IBM, and Indian doctors make up nearly 6% of the US physician workforce. Indians dominated the H-1B programme, making up more than 70% of the recipients in recent years,” the report added.
A Freedom of Information Act request in 2015 showed over 80% of "computer" jobs went to Indian nationals. In 2023, more than 8,200 H-1Bs were approved to work in general medicine and surgical hospitals.
With President Trump sidestepping India and imposing a 50% tariff on Indian goods, which is yet to be changed despite prolonged talks, New Delhi felt constrained to renew its traditional ties with Russia and wave the olive branch to rival China.
And the response from China, whose collaboration India is looking for to improve its yet under-developed industrial sector, does not show much promise either. China continues to irritate India with territorial demands.
China recently stepped up its propaganda campaign to secure the Indian State of Arunachal Pradesh, which it says, is part of Tibet. It detained an Indian national from Arunachal Pradesh for 18 hours on the grounds that she should not be carrying an Indian passport because Arunachal Pradesh was a part of China.
Dr. Muqtedar Khan a political scientist at the University of Delaware in the US argues that while the optics of this month’s visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to India were grand, the agreements signed lacked in substance.
There were also great expectations regarding partnership in the defence field. Technology transfer was anticipated as was access to Russia’s most advanced weaponry. The S-500 and the fifth-generation Su-57 fighter were mentioned in this connection. But no announcements were made regarding delivery of these systems and also on joint manufacturing and co-development.
Perhaps, Putin and Modi were wary of overplaying their hand for fear of a backlash from Washington, Dr.Khan says.
“Trump could respond by raising tariffs on India, imposing new sanctions on Russia, or even invoking CAATSA – the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act – if India announced any major purchase of Russian weapons such as the S-500 or Su-57.”
Be that as it may, there have been some gains. Firstly, efforts are now underway to send Indian labour and skilled workers to Russia, which is currently facing an acute shortage of manpower. This will also help mitigate the unemployment crisis in India.
Secondly, Russian collaboration in building and enhancing the capacity of the nuclear power sector in India is another gain.
Thirdly, the two sides agreed to work toward the early conclusion of a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), a Russia-led economic bloc that includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, in addition to Russia. The EAEU discussion underscores Moscow’s intent to integrate India more closely into its regional economic architecture.
India’s reluctance to compromise on the tariff issue, and its refusal to acknowledge Trump’s role in ending the war with Pakistan and nominate him for the Nobel Peace Prize in contrast to Pakistan, has alienated the US.