One thing is for sure. When this war ends —and end it must soon – the world will never be the same again. Iran has shown how strategy can subsume military powers, and how even nations under decades of sanctions, demonised and isolated by a large part of the world, can fight back for their sovereignty, dignity and respect. Without a navy or airforce or the conventional weapons that define strong militaries across the world.
Iran is unveiling a strategy that will be studied for years by military experts, simply because it follows a plan that has exposed major gaps in US and Israel might. The use of missiles; the decoys; the strong defense and now the visibly strong offense systems on display; the gradation of the missiles used, from the relatively small to the 1000 kg ‘and no less’ declaration; the bringing down of the Iron Dome and other such American defense systems in the Gulf region and further (Cyprus); the precision; the calculation; all this and more will need examination and analysis that no doubt will be forthcoming from independent experts once the war ends.
But for the purpose of this article it is the mix of military; oil diplomacy; and propaganda by Iran that is absolutely fascinating. The responses have been calculated; what appears as propaganda has been proven over and over again to be basic statements of fact; and the sophisticated oil diplomacy conducted by Tehran after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has left the world gasping. Particularly US President Donald Trump who had supported Israel in the attack on Iran — striking the first blow really on a primary girls school– looking increasingly agitated over his complete inability to take over Iran and the oil.
At this point social media is rife with posts suggesting that Israel leader Benjamin Netanyahu is no more. To counter this videos are being released on social media by unknown sources to suggest that he is alive; and being re-countered (for want of another word) as fake in a side war that has broken out between regular users of X in particular. The rumour mill is drawing its legitimacy from the fact that Netanyahu has not been seen for a couple of days, or more. Right or wrong, during a war it is imperative for the leader of the warning nation to be visible; and more so when netizens are insisting he is no more. This has a demoralising effect, particularly as the Israeli Prime Minister is a visible personality, and even in the worst of times has never really disappeared from view.
The same rumours surround the new Supreme Leader of Iran Mojtaba Khamenei who has not been seen since he succeeded his father several days ago. A long statement from him was read out but without a video or even recent photographs. It is now reported, again from unknown sources, that he might have been wounded in the attack that killed his father, mother, wife and other members of his family. Iranians say he is safe, and the Americans insist he is ‘disfigured’ as Hegseth declared, without any evidence or even additional information of course.
Diplomatically the suave Iranian Foreign Minister is very active. It is clear from world responses that all overtures are being listened and responded to, and Iran continues to make the effort to bridge differences, but on its own terms. The language is polite; the response firm, as sources said. The use of social media has increased dramatically; with memes, humour and quick announcements flooding the space by the Iranians, official and unofficial. For instance videos of the Iranian President, foreign minister and security chief walking on the streets of Tehran in the middle of the war gained considerable eyeballs, as did the inference that there was no fear in Iran as against leaders like Netanyahu who had disappeared.
The difference though is that the Iranian war continues on a scale and a strategy that was unimaginable before. US bases across the region have been attacked; US allies like the Gulf have felt the heat; oil refineries with Americans, hotels and buildings housing American government personnel, have been targeted. Iran has made it clear —unlike the US and Israel who take some pleasure in hitting schools and hospitals and civilian installations—that it will not target civilians, and has repeatedly been issuing warnings for people to leave such targeted areas. The missiles as pointed out earlier have increased from strength to strength even as the US and Israel weaponry is deeply impacted and depleted.
So the Iranian strategy centering around “an eye for an eye” is having deep impact, as after the first waves of missiles Tehran made it clear that it would not tolerate a hit on its people and infrastructure without reprisal. It proved its ability to hit back accordingly —for example the US bombing of the Iranian desalination plant ( a war crime in itself) was countered with the bombing of a similar plant in Bahrain, a close ally of the US. Subsequently Iran has made it clear through regular statements that it will hit back accordingly, and this has the Arab countries virtually cowering. Cowards always, the Arabs sought American help at the beginning of the war; and since then have been working the phone lines with Iran, and declaring that they are no longer part of this war.
Oil diplomacy — carrot and stick –is what Iran has used really to gain the upper ground. It started with hitting oil refineries in the Gulf being run by US companies; and then moved almost immediately into controlling the Strait of Hormuz. This was a master stroke that caught the Americans and Israel by surprise. With missiles trained on the waters, Tehran shot at and hit oil tankers that were seeking to move through the Strait without ‘permission’. Videos of such attacks flooded social media, as the world was taught to respect Iran’s declaration that it was now in complete control of the crucial Strait of Hormuz.
Significantly Russia and China ships were given free passage; with all others having to seek specific permission. After multiple phone calls, Jaishankar was able to secure the clearance of just two oil tankers ( a one and a half day supply according to some economists). This clearance came after Iran blew up a Thai ship carrying oil to Gujarat, for moving through the waters without permission. All the countries that had decided to support the US and Israel in this war are re-opening lines with Iran, but this now comes with a strong price attached as they are all finding out. According to Iranian experts on social media, Iran is exporting more oil today than before the war with China becoming the main recipient. Needless to say, Iranian, Chinese and Russian oil tankers are moving freely.
Oil prices are spirally; Europe (except for Germany amongst the larger countries) are all in line for Russia oil with Trump even having given ‘permission’ to India to get Russian oil without fear of sanctions. Of course Moscow’s discount for New Delhi has disappeared in the process, and we are back to buying Russian oil but at a price! Europe too seems to have forgotten Ukraine and are in queue to bring in oil from Russia to stave off or at least alleviate the impending oil crisis.
In short the world is scrambling to diffuse the energy crisis – and the US is feeling the heat. The US attack on the oil rich countries like Venezuela, and on the Global South formations like BRICS, was basically to offset the movement towards a currency other than the US dollar. But now Iran has suggested that it might allow free movement for all countries willing to use the Chinese yuan – instead of the US dollar— for oil payments. It has not come into force yet, but is a proposal on the table that has the potential to change the balance of power across the world, even sooner than expected.