Not Easy For The Elephant and The Dragon To Dance Together

The Elephant and the Dragon will dance, they said. But for the impartial observer this feat in itself is impossible, and even for the optimists it will take decades of uninterrupted effort to teach them to tango. The effort at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meet at Tianjin was visible for all —except of course the captive media of the various countries involved— as the optics were deliberately crafted even though the substance remained scant.

In itself the Tianjin get together of 26 nations — Iran and Pakistan included of course— was just another scheduled meeting. That it got more eyeballs was because of US President Donald Trump and his recent antics around tariffs and Ukraine. The media was looking for drama and found it in the handshakes between the Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi — constituting half of the global population. The smiles and the side chats became a topic for the media to discuss at length, with every other television anchor turning into a body language expert.

But while the optics were great and the photo opportunities sufficient to assuage the thirst of the journalist, there is this diplomatic cold truth that cannot be wished away. And needs to be understood in its hard reality to actually get the Elephant and the Dragon to at least initiate the first baby steps of the promised dance.

What was very evident throughout the SCO meet, at least as per the shared visuals, was the bonhomie between Xi and Putin. The Chinese President lost his reserve and broke into smiles and laughter only when he was seen with Putin, and this in itself was a reminder that the two have come a long way since they established the Organisation in 2001.

India was on the invitees list from the beginning and many diplomatic experts had written about the possibility as a major game changer for the world. If it happened of course. It did not as the then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was resistant, and refused to attend SCO meetings for several years after. A big opportunity was lost as the Singh led government had decided to push for a special relationship with the US, and not impair it with SCO participation, The new government under PM Narendra Modi decided to go along with the established foreign policy, and gave full authority to the External Affairs Minister Jaishankar to forge ahead on the Washington-Delhi front.

All would have been well with India climbing further into the US lap had Trump in his second term not turned turtle. Relations with China had vacillated between hostile and frosty with both countries almost dagger drawn in the best of times. Russia remained friendly to both, and did not give up its role as a mediator that has come in particularly handy at this present point in time.

But Trump 2.0 was not the friendly ‘I love you’ personality who had returned every hug from our Prime Minister with as much, if not more, enthusiasm. He was cold, distant, and after India did not applaud his claim of effecting a ceasefire between India and Pakistan, turned positively hostile. And has not backed off till date, even though his critics at home have gone to town about the SCO meet, and the get together of the Asian ‘giants’ because of his tariff policy. In fact after the SCO meeting Trump, in response to a question from journalists, said that the US trade ties with India were a one way disaster. “What few people understand is that we do very little business with India, but they do a tremendous amount of business with us. In other words, they sell us massive amounts of goods, their biggest “client,” but we sell them very little - Until now, a totally one-sided relationship, and it has been for many decades… It has been a totally one-sided disaster," Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social.

Significantly, the three major leaders who commanded the world’s attention at the meeting were also sending messages out to Trump, all cocking a snook at him as it were . PM Modi was driven by the massive tariffs; President Putin by Ukraine and Europe; and President Xi with what has been recognised all over as a demonstration of emerging power. Trump’s next moves are awaited, but it is clear that he has respect for Putin and Xi and is keen to do business with them directly and not through proxies. How this pans out remains to be seen.

India has clearly not closed all doors, just tried to assert its own independence in foreign relations. PM Modi’s handshake with President Xi, despite Putin’s hovering and smiling presence, has been tentative. Made more so by his decision to stop at Japan en route to the summit; and not to stay for the September 3 military parade that is an emotional issue for the Chinese. This parade commemorated the 80th anniversary of the victory in the War against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War. Instead Xi was flanked by the Russian President and the North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. China experts have pointed to the decision by India, Turkey and Egypt not to attend the parade with the observation that it is an indication that “some countries” are trying to stay away from “fully aligning with China.”

Both Xi and Modi spoke of ending rivalry and becoming friends. But the statements from both leaders seemed to be more a part of the optics than indicative of a special effort directed at good relations. The relations have improved in the sense that PM Modi made his first trip to China in seven years; shook hands with XI declared hostile and an enemy not so long ago; and spoke of a future of peace and tranquility.

Interestingly and very significantly, the Chinese brought back the five Panchsheel principles, agreed upon in the 1954 India-China agreement, signed between Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai. President Xi , after the meeting, emphasised the need for mutual respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty, mutual non-aggression, non-interference in internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit, and peaceful coexistence. He insisted on a development model for the benefit of both countries as well. It might be recalled that India has not supported China’s Belt and Road Initiative, known as the New Silk Road, so far indicative of structural issues in the relationship that need to be addressed as well.

Cover Photograph- Reuters