Reversal in foreign policy can create major chaos, unless it is a considered decision taken by a government in the interest of its country. The flip flop flip of recent weeks by the Indian government has created its own confusion, with even the supporters of the ruling party finding it difficult to understand and explain the heavy shifts regardless of whether they agree or disagree with these.
The latest is New Delhi’s decision to roll out the red carpet for the Taliban’s Foreign Minister Amir Khan Mutaqi for a week-long visit. Till yesterday the government, its minions and followers had taken a strong position against the Taliban, with controlled anchors screaming against the organisation, its fundamentalism and terrorism, in deafening tones. And without so much as a word, the Taliban was welcomed to Delhi as an honoured guest. Small wonder then that the omission of women journalists at a press conference in the Afghan embassy raised merry hell, with Mutaqi having to apologise and hold a second press conference with both genders in attendance.
Now that this controversy is in the past, it is time to take a quick look at what this visit was supposed to achieve. It might be recalled that India had been consistent in opposing the Taliban and had forged a lasting alliance with the Northern Alliance, the progressive opposition in Afghanistan. The assassination of its charismatic leader Ahmad Shah Massoud by an al Qaeda operative in 2001 took the wind out of these sails and New Delhi was unable to get on an even keel where Afghanistan was concerned. Pakistan, on the other hand, remained close to the Taliban with both posing a threat to Indian security.
To cut a long story short, relations between the Taliban and Pakistan have breached, with the recent armed conflict on the borders a telling testimony to sinking relations between the two countries. India meanwhile, welcomed the Taliban Foreign Minister to New Delhi, in a move that has signalled a marked shift in its policy within the region. Along with a strange reluctance to explain why this shift has taken place, since when has India been contemplating it, and what it hopes to gain from this in the long term. In the short term it is being projected as a come uppance for Pakistan, but given the fragile and dangerous territory being traversed this cannot be – and should not be– the sole goal.
How does this new relationship that is being flaunted by India, and Afghanistan as well, feed into the larger geo politics? Perhaps the answer can be found there. US President Donald Trump had flagged a possible American return to Afghanistan — not that the US troops have all left—by claiming access to the Bagram air base that had been left in the Taliban charge. These remarks have thrown the region into a tizzy with the Taliban having rejected the claim, as any other move will strengthen the opposition within. And create a furore. China and Russia under the Moscow Format with Afghanistan and the Central Asian countries in attendance have also rejected this move. Officially India, and even Pakistan, have opposed the proposed takeover.
The Mutaqi visit to India is being projected by some as part of an Indian effort to strengthen the Taliban and foil Trump’s plans for Afghanistan. And of course get back at Pakistan which has lost its closest ally in the region. However, there seems to be far more than meets the eye in that the joint statement between India and Afghanistan does echo the pact reached between the US and the Taliban five years ago in 2020 when Trump was the President in his first innings. It has largely held until now when Trump indicated renewed interest in Afghanistan with his comments on the Bagram air base.
Significantly the Taliban, given the US and Israel’s hostile interest in Iran, becomes important for Washington as well. As the relations between the Taliban and Iran have not been exactly cosy, and if not openly adversarial definitely not friendly either. This year the Iranian Foreign Minister visited Kabul, a first visit since 2017 but there does not seem to have been a major follow through. In that Iran has still to establish full diplomatic relations with the Taliban in Afghanistan.
So given the wheels within wheels it is imperative for the Indian policy makers to share the background and the thought behind this full diplomatic reach out to the Taliban. As playing with fire is not exactly a peace time activity, and can lead to consequences that are not in the interests of India.