Ban on Awami League Will Have Consequences

The Yunus government has banned all activities of the Awami League under the Anti-Terrorism Act until the trial of the party and its leaders is completed. Law, Justice and Parliamentary Affairs Adviser to the Interim government, Asif Nazrul, made the announcement after an emergency meeting of the Advisory Council at around 10:55 pm on Saturday.

A decision was taken to also ban all activities of the Bangladesh Awami League, including in cyberspace. The meeting also approved an amendment of the International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) Act to include provisions to try “any political party or organisation.”

Nazrul said that the decision aimed to protect the country’s security and sovereignty, ensure the safety of the leaders and activists of the July Movement, and safeguard the plaintiffs and witnesses of the ICT. He added that the interim government will announce the ‘July Declaration’ within 30 working days.

Taken under pressure from inside the Muhammad Yunus government and outside it, Bangladesh’s decision to ban the Awami League (AL) is likely to have multifarious consequences for the country’s politics, its relations with India, and possibly the United States too

Leaders and activists of different political parties, student organisations, and Islamic parties and organizations, had joined a mass sit-in organized by the students’ National Citizens’ Party (NCP) on Saturday to demand declaration of the Awami League as a terrorist organization and ban it.

In a post, Nahid Islam wrote: “The Shahbagh sit-in will continue. Blockades have begun in various parts of Dhaka. If decisions aren’t made quickly, the entire country will once again march toward Dhaka.”

After the ban was announced at night Nahid said on Facebook: "The fascist murderers across the country must be identified and swiftly brought to justice. The Election Commission must quickly revoke the registration of the banned fascist Awami League," he added.

Much earlier, in response to similar demands, the government had banned under the Anti-Terrorism Act, the Bangladesh Chhatra League (BCL), the AL students wing, which was widely accused of perpetrating violence and carrying out terrorist activities.

The Muhammed Yunus government, which took over after the flight of Sheikh Hasina on August 5, 2024, consists of a mixed bag of civil society representatives, environmentalists, former bureaucrats, and two prominent faces of the student movement which led to former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s ouster.

Seven of the 17-member Advisory Council lean towards the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) or the Jamaat-e-Islami. Dr Md Nazrul Islam (Asif Nazrul) is a law professor, researcher and activist. He is believed to have represented the BNP. A.F.M. Khalid Hossain is an Islamic scholar and former vice-president of Hefazat-e-Islam Bangladesh, a far-right conservative-islamic advocacy group.

Adilur Rahman Khan was previously appointed as Deputy Attorney General by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party-Jamaat-e-Islami government. He is a law professor, researcher and civil society activist. Students Nahid Islam and Asif Mahmud, two key organisers of the student agitation, are also members of the council.

The involvement of the Jamat-i-Islami and Hefazat-i-Islam in the Yunus government could make Bangladesh a happy hunting ground for Islamic extremists from across the world, warned Mohibul Hasan Chowdhury, the former Bangladesh Education Minister now in exile.

Chowdhury told The Hindu that groups like Hizbut Tahrir and Jamaat-e-Islami Bangaldesh had called for the establishment of an “Islamic State” in Bangladesh. “Such groups should not be seen in isolation. They are capable of impacting not just the region but also the international system,” he warned.

​Chowdhury alleged that the Yunus government had been unable to bring any peace and stability and protect the minorities, progressives and the secular population from persecution by extremists and ultra-Islamists. “Dr Yunus should have no legitimacy in the eyes of the liberal West,” Chowdhury argued.

While economic turmoil and industrial unrest had grown, the Yunus government had failed to bring any changes in the country through reforms. In fact, it has “no mandate” to carry out any such fundamental changes.

“ Yunus despises the ideological foundation of Bangladesh which is secularism and Bengali nationalism,” Chowdhury said.

In the midst of the turmoil over the ban on AL, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) Chairperson Begum Khaleda Zia returned to Dhaka last Tuesday after four months of medical treatment in London. For nearly 15 years, Khaleda and her BNP were in the doghouse, forced into it by a variety of factors, principally Sheikh Hasina’s repressive rule.

But with Khaleda Zia’s arrival a new dimension has been added to Bangladeshi politics. Khaleda’s daughter-in-law Zubaida Rahman, who had accompanied Khaleda, is likely to lead the BNP until her son Tarique Rahman arrives to take charge from exile in London. The BNP’s rank and file are energised by Khaleda's return and there is anticipation about Tariq’s role also.

There are no pending cases against Khaleda Zia. Although Zubaida was convicted in a corruption case, that sentence has been stayed.

Tarique Rahman, the Acting Chairman of the BNP, has been leading the BNP from London. Having recently been acquitted in major cases, including the August 21 grenade attack, he faces virtually no legal hurdles to return.

However, if he returns, work is cut out for him. BNP wants an urgent election this year and has threatened to hold street protests if they are delayed. It asserts that long-term reforms should be carried out under an elected government, not the Yunus regime.

Writing in Diplomat, Dr. Shafi Md Mostofa Associate professor of World Religions and Culture at the University of Dhaka, says that despite its historical popularity, having been founded by Liberation War hero Gen. Ziaur Rahman, the BNP has lost ground due to a combination of internal weaknesses, external persecutions, and shifting public expectations.

If the BNP is to reclaim its position as a leading political force, it must address the challenges head-on and adapt to the new realities of a post-revolution Bangladesh, Dr. Mostofa says.

According to recent surveys, the party enjoys the backing of approximately 42% of the electorate. For the BNP, the present gives both an opportunity and a challenge. On the one hand, the party’s historical support base positions it as a natural contender for leadership in a democratic Bangladesh. But on the other hand, the party’s inability to capitalize on this support base in the post-revolution period has raised questions about its relevance and effectiveness, Mostofa points out.

According to Dr. Mostofa, Tarique Rahman’s absence had created a leadership vacuum within the BNP, which has been skilfully exploited by its political rivals, particularly the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI). Once a marginal force in Bangladesh politics, the Jamaat has seen its support base grow dramatically, from under 10% to 32% according to recent surveys.

Tarique Rahman’s failure to return to Bangladesh has left the BNP without a unifying figurehead. This has weakened the party’s organizational structure and undermined its ability to negotiate with the interim government on critical issues, such as the reformation of the state structure.

BNP is also not in tune with the new realities, according to Dr.Mostofa. “Over the years, numerous allegations of misconduct have been levelled against BNP members, tarnishing the party’s reputation and eroding public trust. While young activists of the revolution are demanding transparency, accountability, and a break from the politics of the past, the BNP’s failure to distance itself from power-hungry elites and embrace a more inclusive and dynamic leadership style has only reinforced the perception that the party is out of touch with the aspirations of the people.”

“The BNP’s reluctance to endorse radical reforms has put the party at odds with the demands of the youth-led revolution. If the party is to remain relevant, it must find a way to reconcile its cautious approach with the revolutionary fervour of the youth,”” Dr.Mostofa says.

Perhaps under political pressure, the BNP has changed its position on banning the Awami League. Initially, it was against a ban, being essentially a democratic party. But after an emergency meeting of its standing committee on Saturday, a member told New Age that the government’s decision regarding the Awami League showed a partial alignment with the proposals the BNP itself had placed during its meeting with the Chief Adviser Yunus on April 16.

‘We will make our official announcement on the decision on Sunday,’ the leader added.

Sources say that the BNP will get the electoral support of hard-core Awami Leaguers, given the fact that there is no other democratic alternative for them. For moderate and secular Bengali Muslims and the religious minorities, the BNP has been the alternative to the AL.

Even now, the AL is supposed to have 15 to 20% electoral support, which will go to the BNP in the event of AL’s not being able to contest.

Supporters of the AL do not subscribe to the theory that the party is finished. It is said to have a sold historical base among Bengali Muslims, says a leading Bangladeshi historian, who did not want to be identified for security reasons. The AL cannot be wished away, he asserted.

“Please remember, the Bangladesh Awami League is the direct descendent of the Muslim League which fought for Pakistan. The Muslim League was founded in Dhaka by the Nawab of Dhaka in 1906. The Pakistan Muslim League became the Awami League in East Pakistan in 1949.

The present AL is a direct descendant of the original. The battle for Pakistan was fought primarily by the Bengal Muslim League. West Pakistani provinces entered the fray only in the 1940s at the fag-end of the Pakistan movement.

Therefore, Bengali Muslim leaguers have an umbilical relationship with the AL. The AL cannot be so easily alienated from the Bengali Muslims as the new political forces hope it can be,” the historian said.

The ban on the AL will further exacerbate Bangladesh’s relations with India which already appears to be beyond repair, after the ouster of its protégé Sheikh Hasina last year.

The Yunus government has been wanting India to hand over Sheikh Hasina to face criminal charges, but India would not oblige. The Ganga waters issue is still to be resolved. Dhaka’s forging of close defence ties with Pakistan is a major irritant.

The killing of Bhabesh Chandra Roy, a Hindu minority leader in Bangladesh and vice-president of the Biral unit of Bangladesh Puja Udjapan Parishad has further alienated India. India keeps harping on Islamic extremists posing a threat to Bangladeshi Hindus and India itself.

Even before India and Pakistan went to war over Pahalgam this month, India had been putting out stories about infiltrators and extremists streaming into India from Bangladesh and joining forces with tribal extremists infiltrating into the North East States from Myanmar via Manipur and Mizoram. India last week began a massive security check along the Bangladeshi border.

India is nervous about the security of the “Chicken Neck” in the event of a combined attack by China and Bangladesh, if relations with Bangladesh worsened. Given the just-ended hot war with Pakistan, India’s suspicion about a fresh link-up between Bangladesh and Pakistan will only heighten the security risk. This could lead to massing of Indian troops on the Bangladesh border.

India is likely to see an Islamic radical element in any new Pak-Bangla tie up especially because the Pakistani army chief and de facto ruler, Gen.Asim Munir, is a hard-core Islamists and a declared believer in the theory that Hindus and Muslim cannot live together. Pakistan’s creditable performance in the recent war, could well embolden him to take kinetic action.

The other side of the Indo-Bangla coin is equally disconcerting. An Islamic resurgence in Bangladesh will be eagerly welcomed by Hindu nationalists in India as that would enable them to carry on their agenda of marginalizing and persecuting India’s Muslims.

Although the US was critical of Sheikh Hasina’s dictatorial rule, the US has been worried about the rise of Islamists under the rule of Muhammad Yunus. In December 2023, Presidential candidate Donald Trump spoke about persecution of Hindus in Bangladesh under Yunus.

In an exclusive interview to NDTV, US National Intelligence chief, Tulsi Gabbard spoke of a "long time unfortunate persecution, killing, and abuse of religious minorities like Hindus, Buddhists, Christians, and others in Bangladesh.”

“It has been a major area of concern for the Donald Trump administration, “ she said. She also spoke of “the threat of Islamic terrorists' in Bangladesh being rooted in the ideology and objective to rule and govern with an Islamist caliphate”.

The US and India could begin collaborating on containing the Islamic radical threat from Bangladesh, putting pressure on Dhaka.

However, if BNP comes to power (presumably with the tacit support of Awami League’s silent voters), it is likely to hold an olive branch to India. In a message that signals both a recalibration of its foreign policy priorities, senior BNP leaders have expressed their desire for a partnership with India based on equality and mutual respect.

“India is our friend,” the Dhaka Tribune quoted Barrister Rumeen Farhana, BNP’s assistant secretary for international affairs, as saying. “We want to maintain a positive relationship with India. But this relationship should be based on equality and mutual respect,” Farhana said.

But the path may not have been smooth given the past. When the BNP was in power during 1991–1996 and 2001–2006, India-Bangladesh relations were marked by a mix of diplomatic normalcy and tensions. Khaleda Zia’s first term as Prime Minister between 1991 and 1996 saw key irritants included cross-border insurgencies, water-sharing issues (especially over the Ganga), and trade imbalances. India was concerned about the alleged support given by elements within Bangladesh to anti-India insurgent groups in the North Eastern Indian States.

During Khaleda's second term, tensions worsened. India expressed strong concern about the presence of militant outfits operating from Bangladesh and increasing infiltration across the border. The BNP-led government was also criticised for a strategic tilt toward China and Islamic countries. Connectivity, trade expansion, and regional cooperation stalled during this time.

However, there is a palpable change now, notes Tanvir Hasan, in Dhaka Tribune. The BNP’s appeal for an “equal and respectful” relationship with India may seem routine on the surface, but it may not be. It suggests a growing recognition within the BNP that past antagonism may no longer serve its political or strategic interests – and that recalibrating its India stance is key to reclaiming credibility both at home and abroad.

But a rapprochement with India will not be easy for the BNP given the fact that both the NCP and the Jamaat are resolutely opposed to it. They can be expected to fight it out on the streets of Dhaka, their preferred mode of political action.