Khaleda Zia Returns From Exile, BNP Reaches Out To India

Bangladesh is at a new threshold of change as of this week. The veteran politician and Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) Chairperson Begum Khaleda Zia has returned to Dhaka from London where had been in self-exile and also undergoing hospitalization for four months.

Her arrival in Dhaka amidst much fanfare and public adulation on Tuesday could bring about a radical change in the politics of the troubled country that saw a violent regime change in July-August last year ending in the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the installation of a caretaker government under Dr. Muhammad Yunus.

The Yunus regime continues to this day struggling to keep its promises to reform the system and hold elections at the earliest. It is under pressure from the University Students’ Party and the Jamat-I- Islami to move in an illiberal direction. But the BNP is expected to force it to change course presumably with India’s subtle support.

The arrival of Khaleda Zia is a shot in the arm of the BNP. No wonder there is palpable enthusiasm among BNP cadres and supporters about the party’s revival. For nearly 15 years, the BNP was in the doghouse, forced into it by a variety of factors, namely, Sheikh Hasina’s repressive rule, Khaleda Zia’s illness and her incarceration by Hasina.

Khaleda Zia’s arrival adds new dimensions to Bangladesh politics. Among other spin offs, friendly gestures towards estranged India are on the cards.

Khaleda’s daughter-in-law Zubaida Rahman, who has accompanied Khaleda, is likely to lead the BNP until her son Tariq Rahman arrives to take charge from exile in London. Party members across the country are more elated and emotional about Zubaida's Rahman’s long-awaited homecoming than Tariq Rahman’s. Political analysts say Zubaida's return may ignite renewed interest in the national political landscape. If she engages in politics, it could bring a new dynamic to the BNP and Bangladesh’s politics. Zubaida’s father was a former navy chief Rear Admiral Mahbub Ali Khan.

However, party insiders told the media that Zubaida is expected to stay in Dhaka only for one or two months and she is unlikely to take part in political programmes during this period as she plans to spend time with her mother and mother-in-law.

Be that as it may, should Zubaida choose to plunge into politics, BNP supporters would welcome her wholeheartedly.

There are no pending cases against Begum Khaleda Zia. Although Zubaida was convicted in a corruption case, the sentence has been stayed. In 2023, a Dhaka court sentenced her in an anti-corruption case. However, the ruling was stayed following political changes after the mass uprising on 5 August last year.

Tariq Rahman, the Acting Chairman of the BNP, has been leading the BNP from London. Having recently been acquitted in major cases, including the August 21 grenade attack, he faces virtually no legal hurdles to return. When he returns, a heavy task is cut out for him. BNP wants an urgent election this year and has threatened to hold street protests if they are delayed. It asserts that long-term reforms should be carried out under an elected government.

Democracy has always been highly flawed in Bangladesh. Restoring it will be an arduous task. Bangladesh has consistently ranked low in global democracy and freedom indices. In Freedom House's Freedom in the World 2024 report, Bangladesh was tagged as "partly free" garnering 40 out of a possible 100 points measuring political rights and civil liberties.

The International IDEA in a report said the 12th general election was characterized by "toxic politics, an opposition boycott, crackdowns on dissent, repression, voting irregularities, and widespread violence" and that it "fell short of basic level of procedural and operational integrity, genuine political competition, inclusion, voter participation, safety, credibility, and legitimacy." Thus, electoral reforms, including key institutional reforms that would contribute to ensuring electoral integrity, are the need of the hour.

Writing in Diplomat, Dr. Shafi Md Mostofa Associate professor of World Religions and Culture at the University of Dhaka, says that despite its historical popularity, having been founded by Liberation War hero Gen. Ziaur Rahman, the BNP has lost ground due to a combination of internal weaknesses, external pressures, and shifting public expectations.

If the BNP is to reclaim its position as a leading political force, it must address the challenges head-on and adapt to the new realities of a post-revolution Bangladesh, Dr. Mostofa says.

“The BNP has long been one of Bangladesh’s most popular political parties, with a support base that has remained remarkably consistent over the years. According to recent surveys, the party enjoys the backing of approximately 42% of the electorate.”

“For the BNP, the present presents both an opportunity and a challenge. On the one hand, the party’s historical support base positions it as a natural contender for leadership in a democratic Bangladesh. But on the other hand, the party’s inability to capitalize on this support base in the post-revolution period has raised questions about its relevance and effectiveness,” Mostofa observes.

One of the most significant challenges facing the BNP is the prolonged absence of its acting chairman, Tarique Rahman, from the country. Many had expected Rahman to return to Bangladesh following the revolution, but he is yet to do so.

Dr. Mostofa says that Rahman’s absence has created a leadership vacuum within the BNP, which has been skilfully exploited by its political rivals, particularly the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI). Once a marginal force in Bangladesh politics, JI has seen its support base grow dramatically, from under 10% to 32% according to recent surveys.

Tarique Rahman’s failure to return to Bangladesh has left the BNP without a unifying figurehead. This has weakened the party’s organizational structure and undermined its ability to negotiate with the interim government on critical issues, such as the reformation of the state structure.

BNP is not in tune with the new realities, according to Dr.Mostofa.

“Over the years, numerous allegations of misconduct have been levelled against BNP members, tarnishing the party’s reputation and eroding public trust. While young activists of the revolution are demanding transparency, accountability, and a break from the politics of the past, the BNP’s failure to distance itself from power-hungry elites and embrace a more inclusive and dynamic leadership style has only reinforced the perception that the party is out of touch with the aspirations of the people.”

“The BNP’s reluctance to endorse radical reforms has put the party at odds with the demands of the youth-led revolution. If the party is to remain relevant, it must find a way to reconcile its cautious approach with the revolutionary fervour of the youth,”” Dr.Mostofa says.

The new BNP’s leadership has the unenviable task of repairing ties with India which surrounds Bangladesh on three sides. Since the unceremonious ouster of the Indian protégé Hasina in August 2024, relations with India had deteriorated like never before. India has denied transit facilities to Bangladeshi goods destined to other countries except Nepal and Bhutan. Even medical visas have been denied.

The Yunus government wants India to hand over Sheikh Hasina to face criminal charges, but India would not oblige. The Ganga waters issue is still to be resolved. Dhaka’s forging of close defence ties with Pakistan is a major irritant.

The arrest of Chinmoy Das of the Hare Krishna Movement and the killing of Bhabesh Chandra Roy, a Hindu minority leader in Bangladesh and vice-president of the Biral unit of Bangladesh Puja Udjapan Parishad has further alienated India. “This killing follows a pattern of systematic persecution of Hindu minorities under the interim government even as the perpetrators of previous such events roam with impunity,” Indian External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal posted on his official X handle.

However, in a significant shift of diplomatic tone, the BNP has called for equal and respectful relations with India – a message that signals both a recalibration of its foreign policy priorities and a bid to reframe its image domestically. Notes Tanvir Hasan in an article in Dhaka Tribune.

Senior BNP leaders have expressed their desire for a partnership based on equality and mutual respect.

“India is our friend,” Tanvir Hasan quoted Barrister Rumeen Farhana, BNP’s assistant secretary for international affairs, as saying. “We want to maintain a positive relationship with India. But this relationship should be based on equality and mutual respect,” Farhana said.

When the BNP was in power during 1991–1996 and 2001–2006, India-Bangladesh relations were marked by a mix of diplomatic normalcy and tensions, Tanvir Hasan notes.

Khaleda Zia’s first term as Prime Minister between 1991 and 1996 saw key irritants included cross-border insurgencies, water-sharing issues (especially over the Ganga), and trade imbalances. India was concerned about the alleged support given by elements within Bangladesh to anti-India insurgent groups in the Northeastern Indian States.

During Khaleda's second term, tensions worsened. India expressed strong concern about the presence of militant outfits operating from Bangladesh and increasing infiltration across the border. The BNP-led government was also criticised for a strategic tilt toward China and Islamic countries. Connectivity, trade expansion, and regional cooperation stalled during this time.

However, there is a palpable change now, Tanvir Hasan points out.

The BNP’s appeal for an “equal and respectful” relationship with India may seem routine on the surface, but it may not be. It suggests a growing recognition within the BNP that past antagonism may no longer serve its political or strategic interests – and that recalibrating its India stance is key to reclaiming credibility both at home and abroad.

“It is a fact that the BNP will need to bring about a good relationship with India,” said Saifur Rahman Tapan, a Dhaka-based journalist, on ETV Bharat over the phone. “It is not just that India contributed to our 1971 Liberation War, but also because it is our great neighbour,” Tapan said.