For Karnataka chief minister Siddaramaiah, the decision to declare the decade old caste survey outdated and ,instead, to order a fresh one, must have been a painful one.

Especially, as he has had to virtually eat his words now ,considering how determined and vocal he was to accept the controversial findings of what is also known as the Socio Economic and Educational survey . That too , notwithstanding the bitter objections from within and outside his party over it.

One could sense his anguish, frustration and regret this week as he announced the junking of his pet project that had cost the government over Rs 165 crore. For the record, the survey under the then backwards commission chief, H Kantharaj, was ordered by Siddaramaiah himself when he was the chief minister between 2013 and 2018.

Admittedly, the decision for a fresh survey was imposed on him by the Congress central leadership last week, something the CM did not fail to air in public. Nevertheless, his party’s seniors in New Delhi were concerned by the serious objections that the state’s dominant Lingayat and Vokkaliga communities had raised over what they termed was an “unscientific survey.” These communities had also argued that their population figures were “understated.”

Accordingly, what also clinched the issue for the party’s leadership in Delhi was the vehement opposition by senior Lingayat and Vokkaliga cabinet ministers and others in the state Congress as well. The displeased but powerful politicians had cautioned the Congress heads about the adverse impact the CM’s move would have on the party’s vote bank.

It is pertinent to remember here that during the 2023 state elections, which saw the Congress pipping the BJP to the post ,the party’s manifesto had promised to accept the findings of the caste survey.

Significantly,the disgruntlement within the party leadership in the state apart, the central Congress was also miffed with the way the Siddaramaiah government mishandled the celebrations regarding the RCB’s IPL Cup title win function and the accompanying stampede and deaths in Bengaluru . It would not be wrong to suggest that this disastrous conduct of the victory celebrations of a corporate event, could have further miffed the party’s leaders in Delhi.

Siddaramaiah,on his part, is now finding it difficult to hide his embarrassment and to face the anger of the backward communities, SCs and STs and the minorities, not to forget the Kuruba segment to which he belongs. These disappointed sections ,to whom he had promised the moon, are now twisting the knife in his wound.

Witness, therefore , their sharp attacks on him and the uncomfortable questions that they are raising. “ Are we so naive as to believe that he did not know that the survey was outdated as it was conducted ten years ago ? Why is he playing into the hands of the Lingayats and Vokkaligas now? Why treat us as vote banks during elections and discard now.”

The convener of the Federation of Karnataka Depressed Communities, K.M.Ramchandra, along with several minority leaders, for example,has been raising uncomfortable questions with Siddaramaiah finding no answers for them.

Having said that, the decision for a fresh caste survey would definitely please Deputy chief minister and aspirant to the CM’s chair, D.K.Shivakumar. A powerful Vokkaliga leader ,he did not hide his feelings against the caste survey which had “understated the community’s population from 1.6 crore to a mere 61 lakhs.”

In the process, it had also brought down the percentage of the community’s population from 16 to 10.31. This has been the main brief of the powerful Vokkaliga seers as well ,evidenced by their earlier demands for a fresh survey.

Alongside , Shivakumar was open about endorsing a letter that the furious Vokkaliga community had sent to the CM against the caste census. He was rather blunt in admitting that he found no contradiction in his stand ,being a deputy CM, as he had to side with his community.

Likewise, the dominant Lingayats were unhappy with the caste survey as it showed their community’s population at 66.35 lakh( 11.9 percent) against the acknowledged figure of 2 crores( 18 odd per cent) ,going by the recorded figures earlier. At least ,this is what the Lingayat leaders including former chief minister B.S Yeddiyurappa,, academicians and the seers ,have been maintaining.

As a matter of fact, senior Congress leader and Lingayat powerhouse, Shamanur Shivashanakarappa , head of the Akhil Bhartiya Veershaiva Mahasabha, had also exercised his influence with the Congress netas in Delhi.

Importantly, the JD-S under former Prime Minister, Deve Gowda and now his son and former chief minister,H.D.Kumaraswamy,leaders of the powerful Vokkaligas, too have been scathing about the 2015 caste survey’s findings. Not surprisingly, the demand for a fresh survey was also echoed by these leaders.

The Scheduled Castes, significantly, constitute 18.2% or about 1.09 crore of the population, and the Scheduled Tribes stand at 7.1% or 43.81 lakhs . If this was not enough, what egged the dominant communities further was the recommendation that the reservation for backward classes be raised to 51 per cent from 32 at present.

For the record, the government school teachers who were appointed as enumerators collected data from over 1.4 crore households spread over a population of 5.98 crore. This was against the state’s population of 6.5 crore. Intriguingly while the Kantharaj commission conducted the survey between April-May 2015 the recommendations were submitted by Jayprakash Hegde, the backward commission chief in 2024.

Inexplicably, the Siddaramaiah government which was in power during the completion of the survey, preferred to bury the report which was revived when he assumed office again in 2023 May.

Adding to the confusion, Satish Jarkiholi, senior minister in the Siddaramaiah government , has now reiterated that there was too much confusion in the old report which explained the need for a fresh one.

Further, according to him, the fresh survey would address the complaints made by the majority communities. If this was not enough, now the CM has claimed that the new survey would be completed in about three months ‘ time.

Yet, he did not hesitate to underline that opinions varied on this issue as a section of experts believed that” it would be difficult, even impossible, to complete the re-enumeration within the specified time as the state’s projected population stood at around 7 crores.”

Predictably, the BJP, which has been a major critic of the old survey, has now attacked the ruling party ,accusing it of playing the minority card. According to Shobha Karandlaje , union minister for state for labour, for example, “ the Siddaramaiah government was following a one –point agenda. Namely , to increase the reservation for the minority communities by showing that their population had gone up.”

In this context , she questioned the government over its decision to conduct a fresh survey, wondering as to who would explain the wastage of Rs 165 crore on the decade old study

This is not all. Critics are also questioning the government’s claim that the new survey would be completed within 90 days. They argue that earlier government school teachers were engaged as enumerators. At that time the schools were closed.

Today, however, the situation is different in that the schools have opened and there is no way the government teachers can be tasked with the all important responsibility.

Under the circumstances, the detractors claim that the government was fooling the general public by making false promises. At the same time, Siddaramaiah is being slammed for ignoring infrastructure development in the state while eagerly wasting Rs 165 crore on the now defunct Kantharaj survey.

Eitherway, Siddaramaiah finds himself boxed in over the fresh survey.

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