BRICS: What Has India Achieved?

NEW DELHI: In a fascinating interplay of diplomacy at the BRICS summit, Russia and China walked home with the headlines without giving India its much sought after assurances on terrorism by singling Pakistan out for specific mention.

China in fact came prepared not to be charmed by an Indian diplomatic offensive, and made it clear at the end of the summit that it was not prepared to allow Pakistan to be at the receiving end of the BRICS stick.

To a question at a briefing in Beijing : "At yesterday’s BRICS Summit (in Goa), Indian Prime Minister said that Pakistan was the “mothership” of terrorists. As a good friend of Pakistan, do you think this is a fair characterization of Pakistan’s security problems by India?"

China replied: "China holds a clear and consistent position when it comes to fighting terrorism. We oppose terrorism of all forms and maintain that terrorist threats tackled through enhanced international cooperation in order to uphold peace, security and development of various countries and the region. We are also against linking terrorism to any specific country, ethnic group or religion.Both India and Pakistan are victims of terrorism. The international community should respect the enormous efforts and sacrifices made by Pakistan in fighting terrorism."

The giant UN Security Council member made it clear that it was not prepared to walk the extra metre, let alone a mile, insofar as Pakistan and terrorism was concerned. Sources said that it seemed to have systematically blocked Indian efforts to include Pakistan, or at least cross border terrorism, in the Goa BRICS Declaration that basically reiterated what has been said by the world before on terrorism, and the need to cripple it.

This is a clear sign of the major obstacles that India, in its initial surge to alienate China on a host of issues including Tibet and the South China Seas, will face as it carries out the Prime Minister Narendra Modi campaign to ‘isolate’ Pakistan in the world. China refused to budge, and according to sources even discuss, its decision to put a hold on the UNSC designation of Masood Azhar as a terrorist. It has instead made it clear through public statements such as the above, and bilateral dialogue, that it cannot be expected to budge on the issue of Pakistan at this point in time.

Russia’s Vladmir Putin did what he is excellent at: negotiate a huge oil deal for his country and sign several defence agreements. Moscow has always been reluctant to jeopardise its lucrative defence relationship with India and Putin has ensured with this visit that this remains unhindered with India agreeing to shell out billions of dollars to keep Russia defence companies in business.

However, the real story insofar as Russia and India are concerned lies in the signing of the agreement that Moscow has been pushing for now months, whereby the Russian state oil giant Rosneft will pay $12.9 billion for a controlling stake in India’s Essar Oil as well as the port facilities the company owns. This agreement will also transfer the 2700 or so outlets Essar has to Rosneft that has acquired 98% of Essar Oil through this deal.

Significantly the US had been opposing this deal as Rosneft has been on its sanctions list. New Delhi decided to bypass Washington on this but even so was unable to get the ‘cross border terrorism’ phrase that it was seeking from Russia. Instead it had to be content with just an assurance for the future with Putin maintaining,“We are conducting a comprehensive dialogue on a wide scale of international issues, in which Indian and Russian approaches are close to each other or coincide,” Russia while commisserating with India for the Uri terror strikes, had decided to go ahead with the scheduled military exercises with Pakistan, despite considerable pressure from New Delhi to cancel, or at least postpone, the same.

In the mesh between the official position, the continously ‘leaked’ source based information that the mainstream media tends to flout, it is becoming increasingly difficult to differentiate between media ignorance and diplomatic wishful thinking. The media reportage of foreign policy, that television and print both insist on attributing to sources, it does seem that India is pursuing just one goal in its foreign policy, reducing the varied structures of diplomatic relations to a Pakistan prism.

This is reinforced by the absence of denials of much touted media reports, and statements from the Prime Minister, BJP leaders, Ministers and others in a position to be quoted, focusing attention entirely on Pakistan. Even at BRICS it is as if there was little for India to discuss with the member nations, with Pakistan dominating the briefings and the headlines.

While the ignorance of the media is on public display, it becomes difficult to contend with similar ‘wishful thinking’ exhibited by the mandarins of South Block in these sourced briefings. It seems to be driven by obsessive, compulsive diplomacy centred on the belief that India will be able to charm the pants off any country once it puts its mind to it. So despite the cantankerous, and hostile, exchanges between New Delhi and Beijing over the past year at least, the impression was created that once in India, China’s President would fall in line on Pakistan. As would Russia, Brazil and South Africa.

Clearly they did not, and the final declaration did not go at all according to the Pakistan-centric position held by India. Seeking to gloss over this to some extent, the mandarins now are exaggerating the sum and substance of bilateral discussions with the visiting leaders to insist that Brazil is on the same wavelength as India on Pakistan and terror. One is waiting to hear from Brazil as there seems to be a widening gap between Indian media reports, and what the other partner has to say about the same issues.

Putin has clearly nuanced his relationship with New Delhi and PM Modi to be a mix of diplomatic assurances meaning little where it counts (as the Goa Declaration) and hard nosed negotiations to extract what Moscow needs. The Essar deal for instance will draw a not very favourable response fro Washington, and while it has reportedly been worded to go under the sanctions radar, the political fall out will dent the burgeoning relationship with the US that India has been boasting off. And is in the process of giving full form to.

The foreign office here seems to forget, or perhaps only for the purpose of its media briefings, that Russia and China in the run up to the Shanghai Corporation Organisation and subsequently have ironed out many major differences, and firmed a coordinated approach to world issues. This is most evident in West Asia where the Russian position, if not always endorsed, is certainly not contradicted by China. It is also reflected very clearly int he Goa Declaration where Syria, Palestine and Afghanistan reflect this coordinated approach that actually signals the emergence of a multi polar order. Putin has referred to BRICS in this context in recent statements, maintaining just before he left for Goa that he looks on this forum as a means to strengthen multi-polarity.

India will thus, have to explain to itself first how BRICS feeds into the relations it is carving with the United States currently. And how it will strengthen its continued economic, strategic, political relations with Washington. Just today New Delhi has caved in to US pressure and Secretary of State John Kerry’s specific demand to remove the sanctions on NGO, Compassion International. A small but significant gesture given the NDA government’s hostility towards this sector.

BRICS has clearly underlined the complexities of diplomacy, with India despite all the loud talk just floating within. What is the goal, where does New Delhi want to go are questions that the foreign policy experts in government need to answer and ensure that the ‘isolate Pakistan’ centre point does not push India into a corner restricting New Delhi’s ability to make informed strategic choices to further its geo-political interests.