Modi and Obama: A Diplomatic Coup ?

NEW DELHI: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s tweet “this Republic Day, we hope to have a friend over...invited President Obama to be the 1st US President to grace the occasion as Chief Guest” was highly significant and created ripples down the block.

One, because President Obama’s presence is being perceived by the strategic community in India as a foreign policy “coup” making him the first US President to ever attend India’s Republic Day. Besides it signalled a new friendship between New Delhi and Washington, suddenly surpassing the ‘no visa’ hiccups that had marred relations since PM Modi came to power.

And two, it confirmed a complete shift of major policy from the Ministry of External Affairs to the Prime Minister himself, as normally the announcement should have come from the concerned Ministry. But clearly the PM himself has taken the credit for this, and in the process has yet again made it clear to the nation and the world of course that he is the man driving India’s foreign policy entirely. To the exclusion even of Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj who is rarely seen accompanying him on his many travels abroad.

In Washington the scepticism about the visit is visible in comments of experts being carried by different sections of the media. The enthusiasm is clearly curtailed, and nowhere on the same scale as the almost euphoric applause from the Indian establishment and its strategy community. President Obama also made it clear in accepting the invitation, that his thoughts were with Pakistan ---his strategic ally in the region---and he telephoned Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to inform him of the visit to India, and basically assure him that Washington-Islamabad relations were in no way going to be impacted. For good measure Sharif urged him to raise the issue of Kashmir with PM Modi.

US voices reflected in the media suggest that a visit cannot be taken as a milestone unless the lingering and highly important and contentious issues between the two countries---climate change, economics and regional security---were taken up and resolved. The unimplemented India US civilian nuclear agreement, the Indian reticence to open up the multi-brand retail sector have also been brought up in the American media as issues that need to be addressed and resolved.

It is also being pointed out that President Obama is a lame duck president for the final two years of his presidency, with a sweeping Senate victory in favour of the Republicans. As the US media has pointed out the timing is right for PM Modi as he has got President Obama before his lustre completely fades, and yet has honoured him when many others have written him off. So in that sense the visit works for both, with trade and business of course being high on their agenda.

However, presidential visits to India have been little more than eyeball catchers. Main promises made to India by both George W.Bush and Obama on an earlier visit during the UPA government to make it a permanent member of the United Nations Security General remains little more than rhetoric even now. Two, the much touted civilian nuclear agreement that defined the relationship between former PM Manmohan Singh and President Bush has failed to kick off because of crucial legal and other impediments. Three, former President Bill Clinton raised the vexed issue of Kashmir by describing it as the most dangerous place in the world. Relations between the two sides have improved dramatically since the days when US President Richard Nixon described PM Indira Gandhi privately as an “old witch” but relations are tenuous enough for yet another visit to strengthen without considerable give and take.

Of course, PM Modi has given out the signal that relations with the US are a priority with this invitation. However, it is early days yet to make any predictions as he had also invited the Pakistan Prime Minister for his swearing in, and then almost immediately reversed the clock by cancelling the secretary level talks. The Americans are looking at big business and mega defence deals to start with, and while PM Modi does seem to be drawing a quadrilateral with Australia, Japan, US and India at this juncture it remains to be seen how bilateral relations finally pan out.