Bihar Gives a Dramatic Edge to The Nitish-Lalu Alliance in by Polls, BJP in Shock

NEW DELHI: It was a dramatic Monday by all accounts. The confidence on Bharatiya Janata party workers faces turned into shocked disbelief when the results of the ten by elections from Bihar started coming in. From being slightly ahead the BJP found itself confined to four seats, less than 100 days after Bihar had voted it so resoundingly to power in the Parliamentary elections, with the grand alliance between the Janata dal(U)-Rashtriya Janata Dal-Congress bagging six seats.

The BJP admitted defeat and surprise at being defeated; the JD(U) said that if the alliance had been more prepared they would have won all the ten seats; and RJD leader Lalu Prasad who worked along with former chief minister Nitish Kumar for the alliance to stick had to be rushed to hospital for a heart check up.

The Bihar elections had assumed great importance for two main reasons. One, it was the first test of ‘secular’ waters in that it was the first time that the JD(U)-RJD-Congress had come together to consolidate forces. Two, it was the first bypoll after the parliamentary elections that had placed the BJP on the ascendant in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh.

The BJP had worked hard to secure these seats in Bihar, and was fairly confident that in the final analysis the voters would consolidate behind their candidates leaving the ‘secular alliance’ far behind in the tally. There was a sense of worry amongst the alliance parties particularly when the CPM and CPI decided to part ways at his crucial juncture, and join the CPI-ML in what then was expected to cut into the non-BJP vote. Janata Dal(U) leaders had told The Citizen at the time that there was some worry about the results, as in a closely contested election the Left alliance could cut into their valuable votes.

The alliance worked even in the seats where the BJP and its allies had a decided advantage over the unified alliance. Also the level of polling was over that conventional wisdom has always cited to predict a vote in support of the cadre based parties, in this instance the BJP. However, this was not the case and post poll analysis will have to look into this surprising factor.

In the final analysis it was the Left alliance that painted itself into a corner without winning a single seat. The differences between the CPM and CPI-ML have prevented the two from coming together in the past, and political pundits now insist that this brief alliance will now collapse. The CPI had maintained throughout that it was an unwilling partner in the Left alliance, its “heart” being with the grand alliance throughout.

To elaborate on the second point further, this success has now ensured that the grand alliance remains in force for the Assembly elections in Bihar next year. Former chief minister Nitish Kumar had earlier told this writer during the parliamentary elections that his government was well aware of the possibility of increased violence in the state, and had ensured high vigilance at all levels. Bihar remained relatively violence free, unlike Uttar Pradesh where Muzaffarnagar destroyed the polling climate, the BJP won 71 seats, and where the violence is still simmering and erupting from time to time.

In Bihar the non-NDA political parties have the major percentage of the vote but lose out when they contest separately. The lesson of this alliance, pushed for by Kumar and Lalu Yadav who calibrated the build up from one meeting, to a protest demonstration to a joint campaign in stages, is for one, the alliance to hold and two, to spread itself to other states. Lalu Yadav set the ball rolling earlier by suggesting that Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mayawati should do the same but both rejected the idea, with the first being a little more diplomatic than the second who appeared insulted with the proposal. The two Bihar leaders had a head start as they were colleagues in the erstwhile Janata Dal and not known to have serious differences between them, unlike most others in that party.

The Congress party joined the alliance later, and for once did not try to push for more seats but accepted its share in the bargain. Both RJD and JD(U) have secured three seats each, and the Congress party one.

The results in Bihar have sent out a strong signal across the country, including to the BJP that has realised that it cannot be complacent even though the 100 day honeymoon period is still not up. The Modi government has come to power with a 39 percent vote share and clearly, as the results in Bihar, show has not been able to build significantly on what it secured during the Lok Sabha polls. BJP president Amit Shah who has been personally supervising the forthcoming Assembly elections in Maharashtra, Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir has told his workers over and over again that it was necessary for the BJP to win the state polls if it was to continue governing the centre.