Limit-Less: CAN PM MODI BRING IN EMERGENCY?

NEW DELHI: One realised how far right the polity has gone, when L.K.Advani the hardliner of the Vajpayee government came out sounding like a moderate in the Modi government. The former Union Home Minister who was always perceived as the RSS strongman in the Vajpayee cabinet, but today his language that one must say has always been measured and polite in its tone, sounds dove-ish against PM Modi’s harsh rhetoric that has been topping the charts for over a year now.

India has been struggling to survive against a virtual onslaught on her democratic foundations by not just some little opposition group,or fringe element, but by the mighty government of India itself. And hence Advani hit the spot dead on when he, in his interview to the Indian Express, said that he feared conditions existed that could bring on the Emergency again. He said very categorically that the institutions designed to act as watchdogs were impaired, and he at least could not see any leadership that was committed to democracy per se. And that would not discard it at the drop of a hat given the choice and the circumstances.

This has led to a barrage of Opposition reaction, with many like Janata Dal(U)’s Sharad Yadav stating that Emergency provisions were already in place. This in fact is something that one has heard from several opposition leaders, and while there might be a slight level of expected exaggeration their concerns seem to be real. In fact about ten days ago there was almost wild speculation that PM Modi might be toying with the idea of bringing India under some level of Emergency. It was not based on any concrete facts, but the rumours continued whirling for a bit before they subsided.

Why is there this apprehension? This needs to be understood, as often to be forewarned is to be fore-armed. One reason of course rests in the persona of PM Modi where he projects himself as this no-nonsense strong man who hates dissent, who does not hesitate to quell it with all the force at his command, whose notion of the nation state is militaristic, and who firmly believes in the adage, might is right. His one year in power has not dented that image, even as indecisiveness, apathy and disinterest in the poor, inability to act on promises, and narcisissma have also come to be attached to him.

He rules his Council of Ministers with an iron hand. The Ministers are not allowed to breathe independently, let alone speak. Their movements are monitored, their speech is controlled, and they are not allowed to speak to the media at all. Big policy decisions have been taken away from the Ministries and brought into the Prime Ministers Office, that has become a wieldy body stacked with files awaiting clearance. In fact while the Opposition, after initial weeks of trepidation, managed to break out of this self imposed silence, the BJP Ministers still cower behind closed doors, unwilling to even return a good morning from a scribe lest it be seen as a prohibited chat.

The second reason is that everyone can now see PM Modi’s control slipping. In that there is resistance, not just from the Opposition but from the corporates albeit silent, from students very very vocal, from farmers who are agitating almost every day for their rights, from the military that is fuming with the government’s failure to follow up on One Rank One Pension promise made by PM Modi himself during his election campaign. So those familiar with the Emergency see similar shades and shadows, comparing him with strong woman Indira Gandhi, a situation getting out of control, and the temptation to clamp down on dissent and dissenters.

Advani who lived through that period, and always an astute politician, probably sees the similarities more clearly than others. More so as there is nothing democratic in the spirit of PM Modi that would stop him from slamming provisions to tighten his control, and give himself the space he so clearly feels an entitlement for. Dictators no matter where they are in the world genuinely believe that they are superior, that they alone can change the destiny of a nation, that opposition is ignorant and obstructive, and that an iron hand is required to tame these dissenters and bring prosperity to the nations they control. History has always proven the reverse, but that has unfortunately not deterred the delusional. Indira Gandhi believed she could change the fortunes of India, but realised how wrong she was and went back to the elections. But not before the country had paid a heavy price.

However, while the polity today might be far right, more militaristic, and the top leadership more autocratic than before it is also a fact that the world is different today. In the 1970’s when Indira Gandhi imposed the Emergency, there was one, no opposition in India worth the name with the Congress being the single largest party at all levels; two, it was a dark age unconnected with technology (no internet, no mobile phones); three, the world was larger in terms of communication and not so closely integrated; and four, India was caught by surprise, it was totally unexpected as there was no precedent.

PM Modi might find it difficult to pull it off even at the onset. One, there is an Opposition that controls more states than the BJP in India; two, India has developed a huge dislike for authoritarianism that is evident in the negative responses to the current government; three, the media has grown dramatically (there was no television then and a few newspapers as compared to now) and it will be impossible to curb it all; the social media and the internet is a major source of communication and resistance, and very drastic action will be required to straitjacket this, more so as there is Indian diaspora all over the world who will use the internet even if citizens at home are denied accessibility.

In short PM Modi might be a strong man with an inherent dislike for the freedoms contained in democracy but he will not be able to tackle this through an Emergency. He will lose the standing he feels he has gained in the world that will react adversely, that is a given. He might just find that there is more resistance in India than he had bargained for. And strong-arm tactics work for a short while at best, in even the most favourable of circumstances.

And for those who feel there is an undeclared Emergency, it must be pointed out that Emergency’s full potential can only be in a declared form as it only then that it unleashes the powers that despots can use to their advantage.

(Limit-Less is a regular column)