Bihar, The Big Game-changer

NEW DELHI: No one realises it more than the politician perhaps, that the Assembly elections in Bihar later this year will act as a major game-changer for both the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party at the centre, and the Opposition.

Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is thus, trying to leave nothing to chance. And after the initial hesitation, he has the full support now of Rashtriya Janata Dal’s Lalu Yadav with sources maintaining that, “Laluji is now categorical that this opposition alliance is necessary and has no intention of backing off.”

The alliance has grown with the Congress party part of it, at least as of now. The Nationalist Congress party under Sharad Pawar, in fact, went a step further and held its national executive in Patna. At the end of it Pawar came out with a statement in loud support of Kumar and the emerging opposition alliance in the state.

In fact the only significant Opposition group that is still “mulling” over its strategy is the Left front of the CPI(M), CPI and CPI (M-L). Of this the last has been opposed to the Janata Dal(U) and in fact all the Opposition parties as well as the BJP in the state. Hence, if either the CPI and/or the CPI(M) decide eventually to support Kumar, it will mean breaking the patchy Left unity they have been trying to effect as the M-L will not cross over. However, both the communist parties are under tremendous pressure to join the opposition alliance in the state and prevent even a small split in the votes. Both are non-committal at the moment and are looking at sheer electoral politics --”how many seats will we get from the alliance”---to help determine their final stance.

JD(U) MP and now part of the ‘war room’ team Pavan Verma told The Citizen when contacted, that he was hopeful that the CPI and the other Left parties would join the alliance. He said that these parties have “certainly an important role to play” at a time when the full effort of the alliance is to consolidate the anti-BJP vote and ensure that the “margin of victory is more than convincing.”

This time around the Janata Dal (U) has strategised the campaign, and ensured that it is not ad hoc as it was during the Lok Sabha elections last year. The publicity company hired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the time is now working for Nitish Kumar. As Pavan Verma said, “the campaign strategy is slowly unfolding.” Kumar will be the face of the Bihar polls, that has finally been realised and accepted by the other political parties in the alliance.

Significantly the BJP stock has fallen in Bihar, with the high end promises made by the party during the last polls not having been realised. As Verma said, “at that time Narendra Modi appeared before the electorate as Prince Charming on a white steed” and effectively harnessed the anti-UPA vote to register an overwhelming victory in Bihar, and elsewhere. Disillusionment now has dented this support, with the Opposition now seeing a major opening to push through provided the alliance is comprehensive, solid and leaves nothing to chance.

The BJP is relying extensively on the Jitan Ram Manjhi card to entice the Dalits, but the recent face off between him and Lokjanshakti party leader Ram Vilas Paswan has created complications. A senior MP from Bihar from the Opposition said that there was a possibility of “Amit Shah tactics” in Bihar, referring to the Muzaffarnagar violence in Uttar Pradesh before the parliamentary elections but insisted that the government and the opposition parties were “on the alert” about it.

The campaigning has begun insofar as Nitish Kumar is concerned, for an election that is expected to impact heavily on national politics. Defeat here for the BJP will bring the spotlights on to BJP President Amit Shah, and sharpen differences within. Regional allies of the BJP will demand their pound of flesh, particularly in forthcoming Assembly elections such as Punjab. Victory for the BJP will come as a major setback to the Opposition, throwing it back into disarray that could erode even the unity currently visible in Parliament. This will strengthen PM Modi considerably, besides hastening the change in the complexion of the Rajya Sabha that is currently the opposition bulwark. But then this is Bihar where enemies become friends, and friends fall out faster than one can predict.