INDIA AND PAKISTAN TALKS: REALLY? WHAT ABOUT THE HINDUTVA HARDLINERS?

NEW DELHI: India and Pakistan have followed a familiar trajectory at Ufa in Russia. The first year of a new government, in either Islamabad or New Delhi, goes into a black and white format at the very start. The new incumbent either goes for a “peace” campaign, or like the present dispensation here for ‘war.’ And then somewhere after a few months there is a course correction, with the peacemakers getting into hostile rhetoric as in the case of former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, or now moderating the language of threats with ‘talks’

This is the primary reason why India and Pakistan remain frozen in time, because peace is held hostage by governments in both India and Pakistan to perceived domestic compulsions. And the occasional movement forward is at best knee jerk, with the establishments and politicians in both countries ensuring that the brakes are applied faster than the offered cup of tea is brewed.

After a year of Pakistan bashing, that has left the region insecure, particularly with the ‘linkages’ drawn with Kashmir and the Indian Muslim over and over again by Hindutva protagonists. this predictable turn around by PM Modi and PM Sharif can only be taken with a heavy dose of salt.

The Hindutva hardliners are not going to take kindly to this. BJP ally in Maharashtra, the Shiv Sena has already slammed the move with Sanjay Raut saying, “nothing comes out of such talks…”

The Congress pointed out the discrepancies asking what was the hurry.

It was clear from the past three weeks that after the United States stepped in to insist that both lower the rhetoric and the tension, there would be movement forward sooner rather than later.

Two, it was again clear to all those following the India Pakistan trajectory for the past years closely, that once the ‘leak’ of the bilateral meeting in Russia was released, it would happen.

Three, it was again apparent that the two PM’s meeting would lead to a resumption of dialogue. In fact, the news according to this writer the news would have been if the invite had not been extended, or rejected as that would have been a confirmation that New Delhi was determined to pursue a hard line agenda.

Four, and this is the crucial part, there is nothing in the India and Pakistan joint statement issued by the foreign secretaries of the two countries to suggest more than the usual platitudes at this stage.

Terrorism remains on the altar, as does Kashmir although it is not singled out and referred to as one of the “outstanding” issues. This is not new, has happened in the past as well, so clearly not a breakthrough of sorts even if the Indian side wants to project it as such.

The two leaders:

1. “ agreed that India and Pakistan have a collective responsibility to ensure peace and promote development.To do so, they are prepared to discuss all outstanding issues.” This is where Kashmir is included. and unless the phrase ‘outstanding issues’ is open for interpretation the composite agenda continues to include Kashmir, Terrorism, Siachen, Sir Creek and bilateral relations to name a few of the items.

2. “ condemned terrorism in all its forms and agreed to cooperate with each other to eliminate this menace from South Asia.” Again nothing new, both governments have over and over again---even under military rule in Pakistan---pledged to fight terrorism in all its forms.

3. “The two National Security Advisors will meet to discuss all issues connected to terrorism.” Interesting formulation “connected to terrorism” as it leaves a great deal open to interpretation. For instance is Kashmir “connected” or not connected?

4. “ Early meetings of DG BSF and DG Pakistan Rangers followed by that of DGMOs.” This is the one level of contact that becomes the immediate casualty of political and military hostilities. It was formulated, and followed with some level of diligence, after the ‘eyeball to eyeball’ confrontation between the armies of both countries brought home the possibility of a nuclear war to an increasingly worried world. Hotlines were established, regular meetings held but clearly the system put together with a great deal of effort breaks into bits each and every time the political heads of governments decide to stare down the other.

5. “Decision for release of fishermen in each other's custody, along with their boats, within a period of 15 days.” The fishermen are the tragedy of this war mongering between the two countries, the innocent and the poorest of the poor not able to recognise man made boundaries fall into each others dragnet and spend their entire lives in jails for doing little more than earning their meagre livelihoods. The intolerance and the complete lack of compassion in the two governments to their plight has become a hallmark of bilateral relations. And this clause has been part of all agreements, with little more than token efforts for their release.

6. “Mechanism for facilitating religious tourism.” Given the interest of both governments in religion this probably could work, although it has not really in the past.

7. “ Both sides agreed to discuss ways and means to expedite the Mumbai case trial, including additional information like providing voice samples.” This is being projected by the Indian side as a ‘breakthrough’. It is not as the issue has been raised over and over again by New Delhi. It is a do-able and given the current Pakistani crackdown on terrorism, could well be a concession given to facilitate the peace process through.

All in all the same story, depending on the same one facilitator: political will. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is bound by a constituency that was raised to peak levels during his campaign for the Lok Sabha elections and in the initial months after his victory. He can deliver up to a point, but not without appeasing those---including RSS leaders, Ministers in government, and front organisations----who have spent his first year in office hammering at Pakistan, and linking this with Muslims at home.

The de-linking of the two by the Hindutva organisations will be essential if the Prime Minister wants room to act, in that Pakistan is handled as a foreign policy issue and the Indian Muslim placed in a completely domestic category. But then the polarisation within India will not be possible to the same extent, as much of the campaign by the extremist groups here is directly dependent on this linkage, drawn repeatedly since the Partition of India.A tough task by all standards, and particularly at this stage where fissures within the BJP are surfacing rapidly.

In short, will Prime Minister Narendra Modi be able to silence the Pakistan baiters that form the crux of his constituency? And thereby get himself the space required to actually pursue better relations with Pakistan? And does he really want to, or is he just using this to get the global community off his back?

Watch this space for the answers.