RAFALE, NUCLEAR DEAL AND NOW NAGA ACCORD: WHAT ARE THE DETAILS?

NEW DELHI: The India-US Nuclear deal that was declared “done”; the Rafale aircraft deal where the supply of “36” was cleared at the turn of a moment; and now the ‘historic” Naga accord ---the three big ‘breakthroughs’ made personally by Prime Minister Narendra Modi remain shrouded in secrecy. Details of all three decisions were not announced with the agreements leading to debate and speculation that in at least two of the cases continues till date.

Politicians, organisations and the media in Nagaland are waiting eagerly, along with the rest of the country, for the details of the Accord. Sources exclaimed at the announcement of a crucial ‘peace accord’ by the government and the NSCN-IM without releasing the details immediately, with the government reportedly waiting to announce it in Parliament. Imphal Free Press editor Pradip Phanjoubam told The Citizen that there was clearly a “desperation” attached to the accord as the NSCN founders Isak Chishi Swu and Thuingaleng Muivah were both over 80 years, and the former was critically ill.

However as Phanjoubam said it was difficult to gauge what exactly could have been achieved in this accord, given the controversy and differences within Nagaland and the North-East surrounding the sovereignty clause, as well as the entire issue of Greater Nagaland. In fact Facebook posts from the state suggest that this was not an accord really, but a blueprint of sorts to underline levels of commitment and spelling out part of the way forward. Experts tend to agree with this maintaining that short of some economic concessions---such as allowing Nagaland to have control over its own oil and natural resources---a political breakthrough in real terms was unlikely.

Phanjoubam also spoke of both New Delhi and NSCN-IM counting on ‘fatigue’ created by the long decades of discord to push through a peace deal. However, as he himself pointed out this fatigue would not apply to the next generations, and an issue seen as unjustly settled could create more problems than it resolved. The possibility of NSCN-Khaplang and other insurgent outfits operating in Mizoram and Nagaland being strengthened is not being ruled out, more so if the concessions on sovereignty essentially resemble the Shillong accord that had been rejected by Muivah as inadequate. As Phanjoubam said, “if the concessions are more than warranted people will ask now why were they kept in this unrest for 40 long years, and why are they being compelled to accept conditions now that were rejected before.”

The delay leads to hardening of positions with widespread speculation now that the details could strengthen the other insurgent outfits. Sources said that this was at best a “NSCN-IM accord” and cannot be projected as a Naga accord for the entire state.

The India-US nuclear agreement that was stuck over the Nuclear Liability Law passed by the Indian Parliament was also given a dramatic twist during the visit of US President Barack Obama to India. Negotiators who had almost given up after hours of talks to resolve the sticking points suddenly declared ‘the deed is done’ after a political nod was clearly given by both Obama and PM Modi. However, not a line about the deal was disclosed in the briefings by either side that was, however, projected as a political breakthrough by the Modi government and the Obama administration. It was subsequently disclosed that an insurance pool would be set up to circumvent the Nuclear Liability law, and that the US companies would then start discussions for setting up the reactors. There is no information since of what the deal exactly entails; what is the final shape of the agreement; have discussions between US multinationals and India begun; has the ‘deal’ moved forward in real terms?

The second ‘breakthrough’ again effected by PM Modi in rather dramatic style was the clearance of 36 of the 126 multi role combat aircraft, a lucrative deal bagged by Dassault Aviation, France. The tender for the the 126 jet fighters was floated by the Ministry of Defence in 2007. Dassault was selected after the usual procedure to supply the Rafale jet fighters at an estimated cost of $ 20 billion. Under the agreement it was decided that 18 of the fighters would be supplied in ‘ready to fly’ condition, and the remaining 108 manufactured with Hindustan Aeronautics Limited in India. The deal got bogged down over differences centering around the French resistance to the Indian demand that Dassault take responsibility for the HAL produced fighters and stand guarantee for the same. There was no breakthrough with both sides stuck on the negotiations that were making no headway.

Enter PM Modi and the deadlock was supposedly broken. There were no answers at the time to what was the price negotiated for the 36 aircraft; what would be the fate of the remaining aircraft; was the original deal scrapped? Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar made a set of contradictory and confused statements that did not really answer the questions. And reports now suggest that the Rafale deal for even the 36 aircraft is caught in a quagmire centering around pricing that is well on the way to exceeding all previous estimates. But again there is silence from the government, with no information about the status of the deal.