Are India And Pakistan Heading Towards A War?

NEW DELHI: Are India and Pakistan moving irretrievably towards war? Sabre-rattling between the two countries has been continuing without a break for over a year with now direct threat of “swift,short wars” and “short-or long” wars being made by the two Army chiefs within days of each other. Jammu and Kashmir has been made central to these threats by both.

The hostile rhetoric has created an environment where at least two scheduled sets of talks between the foreign secretaries and National Security Advisors of both India and Pakistan were called off. And firing across the Line of Control has continued for the year unabated, with several villagers being killed, hundreds being displaced, as the villages become the playing field for the governments of India and Pakistan. Even just before writing this, four villagers have been reported killed even as the chiefs of the paramilitary forces on both sides ready for talks.

The Army chiefs have crossed swords in language more threatening than in the recent past. And have threatened war as retaliatory action against the other. General Dalbir Singh Suhag last week spoke of an ‘arc of violence” evident in what he insisted were recent instances of terrorist violence in Jammu and Kashmir that could be extended to other parts of the country. In this context he warned, “we have to be prepared for the short and swift nature of future wars that are likely to offer limited warning time.”

General Singh was speaking at a seminar “celebrating” the 1965 war just as Pakistan Army chief Raheel Sharif was when he said that Kashmir remained the “unfinished agenda of Partition”. And added very assertively, "If the enemy ever resorts to any misadventure, regardless of its size and scale - short or long - it will have to pay an unbearable cost." He said that the Pakistan armed forces “stand fully capable to defeat all sorts of external aggression.”

Kashmir remained central to General Sharif’s threat of war where he spoke of “atrocities” against the Kashmiris and added, “enduring peace is not possible without a just resolution of Kashmir. The issue can no longer be put on the backburner." He went on to add that “the time had come” for Kashmir to be resolved in line with UN resolutions.

Significantly there was some talk in diplomatic circles of a possible meeting between the two Prime Ministers on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly that looks rather remote now with the exchange of fire between the two Army chiefs. Efforts were on to fix at least a foreign secretary level exchange but there has not been any back channel dialogue to facilitate this as yet. Both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Nawaz Sharif will be in New York end September.

Indian Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar at the same war commemoration spoke of the US and Pakistan “miscalculation” in 1965 where they thought the “fruit of Kashmir was ripe to be plucked.” He maintained that the “present-day environment also requires a similar approach, with alertness and readiness, so that we can deter any such action, and ensure a peaceful environment. Jointness and synergy between the armed forces, ministry of defence and all other associated departments of the government machinery are highly essential to win wars” in a clear suggestion again of the last being a possibility.

The political heads of both establishments have stoked the fires, with the latest being Minister of State for Information and Broadcasting Rajyavardhan Rathore saying in an interview to India Today’s news channel that the government would explore every option, covert or a special operation, to neutralise Dawood Ibrahim or Hafiz Sayeed. Rathore who was a sharpshooter and a Colonel in the Indian Army created a stir with, Ho sakta hai na bhi ho. Ye depend karta hai ki jo operation hua hai usko sarkar darza deti hai ki kya woh covert operation hona chahiye ya special operation hona chahiye (It is possible that an operation is launched. But it will not be talked about before it is launched. It might be talked about later. This depends on whether the government decides to carry out a covert operation or a special operation).”

It is well known that current NSA Ajit Doval was a specialist in covert operations and clearly this fact weighs with the Ministers in the government. Rathore retracted with a tweet maintaining that he was incorrectly quoted,"Incorrect vers of my stmnts allegedly on Dawood attributed to me.”

The threat of war is certainly looming larger with every passing statement in New Delhi, with the social media here reflecting the concerns more than the newspapers, with at least a section of the new television channels advocating war every few days through special discussions. The possibility of peace has disappeared from the official discourse with barely any contact between the two governments through sustained diplomatic channels. Both governments have for the moment at least adopted, hard positions on terrorism and Kashmir with no give at either end. General Sharif’s comments are being taken seriously here, as clearly the rhetoric has hardened to a point where he referred to India as the “enemy” after a long gap. The talks thus remain in a limbo and it remains to be seen whether the Prime Ministers are able to reverse the clock of war marginally, or will continue to race towards what many in New Delhi insist now might be the inevitable.