Bihar Prepares For A Decisive Verdict

NEW DELHI: That the battle for Bihar is tense is clear from the fact that the dates for the Assembly polls have still not been announced. September 1 was the date informally given out by the government to scribes for the schedule, but the EC is clearly taking its time.

And the atmosphere is so political, that politicians are reading motives into the delay with a Janata Dal(U) member saying that clearly Prime Minister Narendra Modi wants to make another announcement before the election code kicks in.

However, the campaign has begun between what is now a direct fight between Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar and PM Modi. This comes from the latter’s refusal to name a candidate for the Chief Ministership before the elections, that has led to considerable grief within the state unit of the party and its small regional allies. BJP leader from Bihar Shatrughan Sinha has been most vocal in his criticism of this decision, suggesting that if the party did not want to name one of the many BJP leaders from the state it could project Lokjanshakti party leader Ram Vilas Paswan as the chief minister candidate. According to him this would improve the chances of the party, as the people are voting here not for the PM but for a CM.

There are others in the BJP who take the view that the support base for PM Modi as was visible during the Lok Sabha elections is still intact. And the people will vote for him over and above any chief ministerial candidate, because they say in him the mentor who will ensure development in Bihar. PM Modi too likes to see himself in this light, as his campaign in the state suggests. He has taken care not to showcase any local leader, remaining the man in charge of Bihar’s destiny. And of course, promising large economic packages for the state during every visit, a promise that has made him the butt of ridicule in political circles, but has certainly not turned away the youth that still remain a sizeable constituency for the Prime Minister.

The BJP strategy is twofold. One, the RSS cadres are working to polarise the voter along religious lines. However, the RSS and the BJP are the first to admit that this strategy will work only upto a point as caste is a dominant force in Bihar;

From this arises the second point in the strategy, where the BJP is working overtime to break the caste consolidation behind the regional leaders. The Yadav vote was of considerable interest to the BJP, but the realisation that it was turning again to Rashtriya Janata Dal leader Lalu Prasad Yadav it is focusing attention on the youth. And Nitish Kumar’s constituency of the other and lower backward castes. This will be most evident during the allocation of seats, where the BJP will try and field candidates to break the caste vote for the Chief Minister and his allies. This, in fact, is a key part of the strategy with each constituency being mapped accordingly.

The counter from the grand alliance of the JD(U), RJD and Congress is a little more complex as all the three allies handle different vote banks, and while together are also in competition with each other to some extent. Lalu Prasad Yadav is back though, in full form, as his rallies indicate. His Yadav vote is returning in large numbers, also helped by the consolidation of the Bhumiyar Brahmin behind the BJP. In Bihar the Yadavs and the Bhumiyars are bitterly opposed to each other, and the former who had deserted Lalu Yadav in the last elections are seeing new virtue in him again. This is a big plus point as when combined with minorities and others, this becomes decisive in many constituencies in the state.

Development is a plank shared by both the CM and the PM. Both have been trading words on this issue, with PM Modi reaching out to the youth and the urban constituencies in particular. CM Kumar is also working on dividing the urban and the youth with a campaign directed to convince both that he is the man on the ground who can ensure this, and not the Prime Minister from Delhi. House to house campaigns are a tool being used by both sides, with the rural base the JD(U) stronghold still.

The election will be won by the party/alliance that makes a substantial dent in the others base. It will be close but as political experts insist, when the votes are cast these will register a decisive mandate and not a hung verdict. The Left alliance and others like the Samajwadi Party, the Nationalist Congress Party etcetera are not expected to register a presence, and likely to be swept away in what is already a tense battle between PM Modi and CM Kumar.