US PRESSURE COULD LEAD TO A MODI-SHARIF MEET IN RUSSIA

NEW DELHI: The next headline stealer could be the anticipated meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Pakistan leader Nawaz Sharif on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in Ufa in Russia this week.

Although neither side has confirmed the meeting, there have been sufficient ‘leaks’ in Islamabad to keep the media agog with the possibility of a handshake translating into a dialogue between the two leaders. There has been silence from the Indian establishment, although the meeting is expected to take place on July 10.

Relations between India and Pakistan hit a new low, after the visit by PM Sharif to New Delhi to attend the swearing in of PM Modi last year. To a point where the US could no longer pretend to be a bystander, and over the past couple of months has been intervening directly, urging both countries to mend relations. The US State Department issued at least four statements in a row for India and Pakistan to lower tensions, with Secretary of State John Kerry following this with phone calls to PM Sharif. Secretary Kerry said the tension was a cause "of enormous concern to all of us for all the obvious reasons". There was no official confirmation of a similar phone call to PM Modi but a State Department official told reporters that Washington was "in touch with India" as well "at the highest level."

It is clear that the Modi-Nawaz meeting if it does take place will be in response to this nudge from Washington, that is keen for the two neighbours to remain in dialogue and not allow the tensions to escalate where the media on both sides starts speculating about conflict.

It remains to be seen if the meeting is productive, in that both leaders actually use it for concrete action to lower tensions and resume the aborted dialogue. Sources suggested that the composite dialogue between the two countries had run its course in real terms, and the agenda as well as the modalities needed to be re-visited. However, eve for this it is imperative for both sides to talk but it remains to be seen whether PM Modi will be willing to take the process forward at this stage.

Pakistan has made no secret about the fact that it wants a dialogue, and that tensions with India were impacting on its operations against the extremists that in turn could jeopardise the smooth exit of the US troops from Afghanistan. India on the other hand has lately shown a visible disinterest in dialogue, making it clear that it no longer stands committed to dialogue with Pakistan. However, the US pressure did elicit a phone call by PM Modi to his Pakistani counterpart ostensibly to wish him for the month of Ramadan.

Significantly ever since the US stepped back into its old role of a peacemaker between India and Pakistan recently, the almost continuous firing at the Line of Control has stopped. Neither side has reported this for a few weeks now. Pakistan that had started ratcheting up the decibels on Kashmir has also quietened down on this controversial issue lately insofar as rhetoric is concerned. In fact as the sources said, it has been quieter on the western front these few days, than it has been for a year now.

The US concern reached new levels after reports of a strike by Indian forces on militants in Myanmar, and a subsequent threat by a Minister in Modi’s government of similar action if required in Pakistan. This led to an exchange of words, with Washington stepping in to ensure that the hostilities of the year did not escalate beyond acceptable levels. The sources said that it had been made clear to both countries that the freeze needed now to thaw, and anything else would not be acceptable.