The BJP Blinks First in Maharashtra

NEW DELHI: In the cat and mouse game in Maharashtra the BJP blinked first and the smaller party, the Shiv Sena walked away with the majority of Assembly seats to contest.

Under the ‘deal’ if it can be called that the Shiv Sena will contest around 150 seats as against a maximum of 130 to be contested by the BJP. However the final figure for both will depend on the talks to be held with the smaller parties in the state for which the Sena had decided to leave about 18 seats. Clearly it is hoping that the extra seats for the BJP will come from the smaller parties that will now be left with seven Assembly seats to contest.

The Shiv Sena through some shrewd bargaining under Uddhav Thackeray has managed to emerge as the larger partner in the state. This is despite efforts by the local BJP leaders and of course party President Amit Shah to whittle it to a junior partner level. However, the results of the recent bypolls went against the BJP that despite the hard posturing was forced to agree to Thackeray’s terms.

Shah had declared that the party would sweep to power and be able to form the government in the state on its own. But the by polls could not have come at a worse time for the BJP as its Maharashtra ally Shiv Sena has used these to jump into the drivers seat and insist on dictating terms for the forthcoming Assembly elections. Thackeray offered 119 seats to the BJP insisting that this was ‘final’ and negotiated t0 130 without giving away the Shiv Sena share. It was clear to the political leaders in the state that 18 seats was too big a figure for the smaller, largely one leader parties, and the Shiv Sena president had left himself with sufficient room to negotiate.

Thackeray was also able to persuade the BJP of his inclination to go it alone, unless his terms and conditions were met. The BJP now desperate for victory in the forthcoming Assembly elections is clearly not confident of securing the majority of seats in Maharashtra, particularly if there is multi cornered election with all concerned parties fighting on their own. Currently the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party are in intense negotiations with the latter using virtually the same pressure tactics on its ally as the Shiv Sena did on the BJP. The threat ‘we will fight alone’ seems to work on both the BJP and the Congress, the first keen to form the government in the state and the second desperate to save itself from complete decimation. Alliances thus become important for both to prevent the vote from splitting to a point where both the national parties suffer.

The 151 seats is a climbdown for the Shiv Sena from its earlier insistence of 168, with Thackeray now saying that this was supreme concession his party was making “for the sake of Maharashtra.” The BJP that had earlier made sufficient noises about contesting all the seats in the state to come to power on its own if need be, has now settled for 130 seats that the Sena had initially refused.

It is very clear that in this particular bargain the BJP was not in charge of the political vehicle, with the next hurdle being who will be the chief minister of the state if this alliance wins. The Shiv Sena has made it clear that it will not settle for anyone else but Uddhav Thackeray in the post, although of course the final picture will be clear after the elections and the number of seats each secure.

The BJP does not have a leader that it can project in the state, and this is further weighing against effective bargaining insofar as it is concerned. Gopinath Munde’s untimely death has cost the party dearly, as even while claiming the top post it cannot name a leader to fill it. However, it continues to insist that both parties should contest 135 seats each and face the election as equal partners.

Leaders of both the NCP and the Congress have also independently issued ultimatums to each other, giving 24 hours or so to each to agree to their respective demands otherwise face the electorate on their own. Senior NCP leaders were summoned for a meeting by president Sharad Pawar with the party wanting to contest the lions share of the seats because of the fall in Congress fortunes across the country. However, talks are still on although the last date for filing nominations is September 27.