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NEW DELHI: The knives are out, sharpened, and in use in Maharashtra. The face off between allies of 25 years, the Shiv Sena and the Bharatiya Janata has turned into high voltage drama with the former determined to claim the state as its own and the latter using Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘magic’ to sweep to victory as it claims.
The falling out between the BJP and the Shiv Sena has virtually eclipsed a similar story in the NCP-Congress camp with Sharad Pawar now moving from party to party in an effort to remain relevant in the post elections scenario. Voting is on October 15.
PM Modi has been in the state for two days now addressing mega rallies in the state that has become a battling ground for the BJP to prove its supremacy in the electoral field. This follows the breakdown of talks between the two allies, following BJP president Amit Shah’s assertion that the party can come to power on its own. The Shiv Sena is equally determined to prove that it is the bigger party in its home state, and cannot be taken lightly.
Shiv Sena is particularly aggressive in countering what its workers describe as the BJP threat in the state. Shiv Sena workers, for instance, rushed to the Mahalaxmi racecourse grounds just after PM Modi finished addressing a public rally, with brooms and buckets to sweep the area clean of water bottles, campaign flags and banners that littered the ground. The intention was clearly to spotlight the hollowness of the Cleanliness drive launched by the PM on Gandhi Jayanti, with the Shiv Sena ‘attention’ grabbing the local headlines.
The Shiv Sena has also started, rather subtly, an anti-Gujarati campaign in Mumbai, with the undertones suggesting that the BJP interest in Maharashtra is to keep it as an appendage of Gujarat. Added to this is the Shiv Sena grapevine propaganda that if the BJP comes to power it will separate Mumbai from Maharashtra, an argument that has been used several times in the past and always arouses high emotions in the Sena’s support base. This time the two arguments have been juxtaposed against PM Modi’s visible and declared fondness for Gujarat, and according to reports from the ground have acquired a certain momentum.
The BJP promise for a separate Vidarbha has also come under severe flak with the Shiv Sena and its arch rival the MNS under Raj Thackeray both opposing it vehemently during their respective campaigns.
The Prime Minister is his speeches has maintained that as this was the first election after Shiv Sena leader Balasaheb Thackeray's death, “I have decided that in his absence, I won't speak against the Shiv Sena, as a mark of respect.” This has not won him any support from the Shiv Sena that seems visibly angry and resentful about the BJP’s increasingly aggressive stance in Maharashtra. In fact this too has become a major poll plank for the Sena that is projecting itself as the aggrieved party in the campaign, and how it supported the BJP at the centre, and how it was let down when it came to Maharashtra.
The BJP is working hard on the sizeable north Indian presence in the state, with families of eastern UP being specifically targeted. Several UP leaders, particularly from Varanasi, have arrived Maharashtra to campaign in the state with the BJP confident that Modi’s magic will work in its favour in the Assembly elections.The PM is expected to re-work the support that was evident for him during the Lok Sabha elections, and remains the star campaigner for the party in the Assembly elections. More so, as the BJP does not have a chief ministerial candidate and no credible face to lead it into the polls at the state level.
Each party in the fray is of the view that the four cornered contest will favour its candidates. It is true that this has thrown the polls wide open, as a small percentage of the votes could determine defeat or victory. Besides after alliances lasting over two decades all four parties--BJP, Shiv Sena, NCP, Congress---were in a mood to test the waters and see where they stood singly. The last two are expected to form the bottom part of the results, with the real fight being between the BJP and the Shiv Sena for the first position in the elections.
Both have heavy stakes. For the Shiv Sena it becomes a matter of prestige to which is linked its future in the state. For the BJP too its a matter of prestige as it will be, and is directly linked, to its popularity with a plus vote confirming the effectiveness of the Modi factor, and a reduced number of seats feeding into the speculation triggered off by the recent bypolls, that the charisma is fast falling.
The presence of smaller but significant parties in the fray will also add to the general uncertainty. Besides Maharashtra is not as averse to Independent candidates as states like UP, with 23 having been elected to the Assembly in the last polls. These smaller groups, and individuals of course, could find themselves in kingmaker positions if the verdict is not as decisive as the BJP and the Shiv Sena hope, and the mandate is hung.
