2024 Déjà Vu !

We are now firmly ensconced in a new year. While we were approaching the end of 2023, practically everyone had wished for change, peace, good health and a much better 2024. In other words, an all-round makeover for the better, for everyone.

However, so far, nothing seems to have changed in our country, though there are a number of major changes taking place in the rest of the world. In our country, we seem to be perpetuating the same old narratives as they took place in the closing months of 2023.

Security and sovereignty is obviously the most important aspect. Nothing has changed and neither are there any announcements regarding thinking about strategic level policy decisions.

Our adversaries on the many different types of our borders, continue with their earlier activities, as our Armed Forces remain facing them, at some places in an eyeball-to-eyeball mode. Unfortunately, we continue to be on the defensive, as our leaders have decreed!

What our policy makers do not understand is that ‘defence’ is a temporary operation of war, meant to provide a firm base, recoup, restructure, retrain and re-equip for offensive operation, which may vary from a border skirmish; to a show of force; to conduct small-scale raids/low level offensive operations; and if required going on to bigger offensive operations; with aims and tasks specifically and unambiguously stated.

There is very little dynamism in defensive operations and in the long run they are counter-productive. Our policy makers seem to have accepted the status quo.

Former Chief of Army Staff, General Manoj Naravane’s yet-to-be-released memoir titled ‘Four Stars of Destiny,’ earlier scheduled to be released on Army Day 2024, is now “awaiting clearance” from the Union Ministries of Defence and External Affairs.

The memoir, contains a series of revelations, including the former Army Chief detailing how he was handed a “hot potato” in dealing with Chinese ingress in August 2020 in Eastern Ladakh, and how the Agnipath tour of duty scheme caught the Armed Forces by surprise and was a “bolt out of the blue, are only two aspects; there may be a few others too.

The Armed Forces of our country are traditionally left on their own to train, plan, build capacity and capabilities to be ready to take the field, even at very short notice. The two greatest strengths of our military have been our ‘secular approach’ and ‘apolitical character’.

These principles have made our armed forces reliable, loved by the polity and highly capable. They do underscore that any compromise on these principles will harm the Army. In the present dispensation, both are sought to be diluted, much against military advice.

The military needs to resist such overtures forcefully and the political leaders need to go by the military advice and not by civil officials.

The New Year does not appear to have changed the politico-bureaucratic approach of downgrading the Armed Forces from their earlier commanding position among government officials that existed till Independence and which is also implied in our Constitution.

There are examples galore, which are well-known, but the one that needs amplification strongly, is the example of NFFU (Non Functional Financial Upgrade), which gives higher emoluments to civil and police officers but is denied to the officers of the Armed Forces.

The NFFU saga for making officers of the Armed Forces also eligible/entitled for this privilege is pending with the Supreme Court for over three years, due to continuous meaningless pleas by the lawyers of the Ministry of Defence, resulting in the vortex of ‘tarikh par tarikh’ for over three years!

Besides wasting public money in crores as lawyers’ fees, it reeks of abandoning the Armed Forces, even by the highest court of law of the nation, which appears to be joining hands or acquiescing to false pretexts and manipulations by the government.

A sad State of affairs indeed!

What is also worrying is that instead of a reduction of operational tasks and assigning them to those instruments that are meant to do them, the Armed Forces particularly the Army continue to be called to carry out such tasks. This is simply because the civil instruments meant to do them are either incompetent, or lazy, or want to protect their backs.

An obvious case is how the Armed Forces, particularly the Army, keep getting deeper into the morass of counterinsurgency operations, as well as border defence at the same time.

In addition, having brought the situation under control, they are not released, as is the laid down policy. Although our soldiers, sailors and airmen are well trained, well led, and physically and mentally tough, these repetitive tasks take their toll and affect morale adversely.

They also play havoc with our weaponry and warlike equipment, not to mention long-term adverse effects on our trained manpower (now women power too).

The political leadership seems to have no plans to change this situation, although the strength of all types of police forces, administrators, and subordinate staff keeps increasing, as do their pay and allowances, while the army plods on with antiquated equipment, reduced emoluments and ever-increasing tasks.

Despite its high numerical strength, the Indian Army, touted as the world’s third largest, continues to be a hollow army. Consequently, its ability to undertake various types of military operations on the modern battlefield stands greatly reduced.

The other two Services too face similar problems. There are three major reasons for this state of affairs.

The first is the abysmally low defence budget. It has been dwindling every year and now stands at just 1.5% of gross domestic product (GDP), that too by unnecessarily increasing the civilian components, (like in SPARSH), who are more expensive holistically as they retire much later than soldiers, but cost more and when compared to soldiers are less productive.

The second is the complicated procurement procedures. Despite nine or ten Defence Procurement Plans having been issued in the last over a decade, there is no change in the situation.

There is a lot of talk about inducting new weapons, weapon systems, new innovations and the like, but all are in a future mode. While the Armed Forces have been wanting to co-opt our corporates in supplying us with indigenous weapons and equipment, the politico-bureaucratic system does not want to change the current system.

They are wedded to the status quo that is safe and full of freebies for them. Some of our private sector manufacturing entities have both the ability and capability to equip our armed forces, but are stymied by our slothful bureaucracy.

The Armed Forces are hoping that the policy of Atma-Nirbharta is speeded up, but in the meantime the rapidly aging equipment needs to be replaced, even by selective imports, especially of critical items.

The third reason is that while the Prime Minister’s “Make in India” policy resonates in discussions, media reports, committees, election speeches and the like, precious little action is visible on ground. The Department of Defence Production carries on in its lethargic ways and the Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO) has produced little, despite huge time delays and cost overruns.

There is no dearth of money in India, as even the most obtuse person can discern the lakhs of crores of rupees being spent on projects for self-aggrandisement; meeting the egos of our leaders; personnel, vehicles and equipment deployed for their so-called security; and wooing voters.

If government spending is controlled and ‘wants’ are reduced, the economy will have more revenues available for genuine essentials. Mere boasting about a plethora of Trillion Economies is of little use when our industrial output globally is below two per cent!

Despite the above, it is clear that the powers that be have introduced at least one change in their policy towards the armed forces. In their fresh thinking the phrase “Jai Jawan Jai Kissan” introduced by an erstwhile Prime Minister Lal Bahadur Shastri in 1965, is no longer in fashion and hence dropped, but focus on the Kissans continues, along with others. Why waste your breath when the jawans are only pseudo voters!

In the economic fields, the same old numbers are trotted out, well-known boasts of how well the economy is doing are repeated ad nauseum and self-applauded by our leaders. The bulk of the polity is mostly ignorant of the real nature of the economy. A look at the actual numbers tells a different story.

While the Stock Market is continuing to be in a bullish run and has earned the sobriquet of being the ‘Superpower of all Stock Markets’, the hard ground facts need to be looked at seriously, as they affect the huge population and not just a small number of Punters!

Even the Sarkari Data warns of how the actual economy is functioning. Retail inflation has surged to a four-month high or 5.69 percent in December, driven by higher prices of food items, such as pulses, spices, fruits and vegetables. This is as per data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO).

The NSO data also states that factory output, as measured by the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) slipped to an eight-month low of 2.4 percent in November 2023, as against 11.6 percent a month back and 7.6 percent a year ago, due to a high-base effect and slower growth in manufacturing, mining and capital goods output.

Urban areas recorded double-digit 10.42 per cent food inflation in December 2023 and rural areas registered 8.49 per cent. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to India has sharply declined, falling from $38 billion to $13 billion in the year through September 2023. This downturn contrasts with the $44 billion peak during the 2021 fiscal year.

Despite ambitious projects announced by foreign entities, such as semiconductor plants and renewable energy initiatives, actual FDI remains subdued. Meanwhile, India’s “Affluent Class”: those with an annual income above $10,000 (about ₹825,000), is projected to nearly double within three years, from the current 60 million to 100 million by 2027, as per a Goldman Sachs report.

Currently, only about 4 per cent of India’s working age population has a per capita income above $10,000, the report stated.

While Foreign Exchange Reserves are still comfortable, the growing debt, that is galloping, is not just a cause for concern, but indicates the profligacy of Government spending, which continues to rise unabated, without progress in job creation, poverty alleviation and reducing the yawning gap between the one percent super rich, and the over 50 percent living below the poverty line.

In many respects, the nation has deviated so much from good governance and social justice that we should no longer be referred to as a democracy.

The internal security situation has worsened but always denied and never acknowledged. Insurgencies and militancy, in all their varieties, in our border states, as well as in the hinterland are barely contained by brute force. There is little or no attempt to understand and tackle the root causes and concerns of the polity.

Despite the Indian Army having brought the levels of insurgencies to manageable levels on a number of occasions, political processes have either not started or are embroiled in political parties playing politics with each other, while the populace looks askance at the games the politico-bureaucratic leadership plays.

A major internal security lapse involving surreptitious entry into the new Parliament building and smoke canisters being used, along with leaflets, by the intruders, was hastily swept under the carpet. No accountability was established, no heads rolled, and only cosmetic changes in security checks were made, with the same Armed Police force!

What a shame, as it was all done to show that the ruling dispensation should continue to be seen as blameless!

An earlier similar incident in 2001, when Atal Bihari Vajpayee was the Prime Minister, where there was firing and casualties, the government panicked and the entire Indian Military was mobilised, without any specific tasks assigned. That had cost the nation 1874 casualties of the Indian Military, of whom 798 were fatal and the expenditure incurred was $3 to $ 4 billion.

The contrast between the two tells its own tale!

In the last two decades, efforts to marginalise the Indian Military have been made, by trying to boost the police in many areas. The current dispensation is so keen to displace the Indian Army from being the prominent and the ultimate instrument of the nation, by the police, that the internal situation in the country is deteriorating by the day.

This is particularly so in all trouble-spots, especially in the border states, as without first training and improving the capabilities of these different Central Armed Police Forces, including their leadership, mere presence is not good enough.

The result is that even dormant security-related troubles like the Khalistani problem or peace in the North Eastern States like Manipur have flared-up.

Perhaps the Darbari Culture of placing loyalists in crucial slots, instead of security-specialists, needs to be done away with and professionally competent individuals need to be brought in. But then, how will crony-capitalism and ego-massaging work?

State and Central Governments must not adopt different yardsticks in providing jobs to family members of martyrs, giving a lesser status to the kin of defence personnel who laid down their lives for the country than those of police martyrs, as is being done currently by all states.

Dubious and lackadaisical work ethos in the two other domains of the police: ‘law and order’ and ‘internal and external intelligence’, which are exclusive domains of the Indian Police Service, have had lacklustre performances.

Law and order have worsened in most states, with heinous and other major crimes becoming more frequent and with the connivance of the police individuals in many cases.

Three new laws to replace the old criminal Justice Acts have been passed, without any Parliamentary debate or ascertaining the views of specialists outside the Government. So one can only hope that they help and not hinder the dispensation of justice!

The first agitation against them has already taken place by truck drivers and others, creating panic and fuel going dry in both urban and rural areas.

The police have, unfortunately, become a hand-maiden of the politico-bureaucratic combine. It has nearly lost its original ethos of a government instrument that is meant to assist the law-abiding citizenry; ensure that miscreants and criminals are brought to justice; assist the judiciary in dispensing justice by collecting and presenting detailed evidence; to ensure that criminals and lawbreakers get their just punishments.

Unfortunately, the bulk of police work in most states has been replaced by so-called guarding of so-called ‘VIPs’, those masquerading as VIPs and following illegal ‘orders’ of the bosses they serve. Such intimate associations are ruinous for any uniformed force, as has been proven many times.

‘Ji Hazoori’ was always an old and embedded trait of our police, going back to colonial days, along with their propensity for using illegal, unnecessary and mostly brutish force. This not only continues but has become worse now.

Efforts by a few honest, well-meaning and professionally highly competent police officers have unfortunately not succeeded in changing the ethos, doctrines and conceptual moorings of our police, despite many efforts.

Names of a few well-known police officers like Meeran Chadha Borwankar, who was Maharashtra’s first woman Director General of Police; Gurbachan Jagat, DGP J&K and later Lt Governor Manipur; Julio Ribeiro, DGP Punjab; Prakash Singh, DGP BSF; come readily to mind, although I have no doubt that there are many others.

Last but not the least are our worthy political leaders, who steal the limelight, as always.

In concluding the first part of this missive, I want to touch on just three issues that are being talked about and may well be called the flavours of the season. These are:

• ‘Democracy and Good Governance’. Have we already massacred them, or are we still in the process of doing so?!
• The Gender Issues, which everyone likes to talk about but are swept under the carpet when it is time to implement.
• The no-holds-barred inauguration of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya.

Democracy and Good Governance

Most populous countries are noisy; colourful; have exotic and not-so-exotic smells; are old, if not ancient; have cultural, ethnic and religious diversity; boast of a variety of languages; revel in politics and street foods in equal measure; are rich in ancient wisdom but poor in monetary terms; and where the majority of people are exploited by those who govern them.

India probably fits this description to the T!

Such countries boast of a variety of forms of government. Some are theocratic, while others are autocratic or dictatorial. Some are still ruled by kings and queens, while others only tolerate them, albeit for historical reasons.

Some have succumbed to oligarchs; some are still colonies even in these so-called progressive times; and finally, there are the democratic countries, but again with different types and interpretations, as well as different ways of functioning. This melange of types makes our world extremely interesting!

Most political Pundits say that democracy is the best form of government and consequently (maybe theoretically) governance, because in this form it is the people who elect their leaders and, in any case, most philosopher’s in ancient civilisations have said so, some explicitly and others obliquely.

Within the overall structure of democracy, there are many hues and colours, like ‘guided democracy’, ‘controlled democracy’, ‘proportionate democracy’ and ‘free-for-all-democracy’, like we have in India.

It has no doubt worked for over 75 years now, but lately it has congealed into a system, where earlier blemishes have become big warts, if not carbuncles. Unless this systematic decline is stopped and reversed, we may lose the sobriquet of being the ‘the biggest democracy’ of the world.

Throughout our independent history, we seem to have taken the proverbial ‘one step forward, two steps back’, and have probably now reached a position where electoral gains have become the ‘be all and end all’ of democracy; governance with the sole aim of winning the next election; irrespective of whether they are Panchayat and Municipal elections; or state and central elections.

In the present and prevalent scheme, our written Constitution is theoretically supreme but if a political party has absolute majority, it feels (wrongly, of course) that it no longer requires to adhere to the Constitution and still get away.

This happens when there is no opposition worth the name or when the opposition is divided and hence vulnerable to what is popularly called ‘horse trading’.

Unlike many other democracies, the politicians in India are a pampered lot, if one goes by the emoluments, perks, pensions and freebies enjoyed by them. No wonder, politics for them is life-long. In this connection it is worth penning an anecdotal story that has been going round the social media.

A Vietnamese President visiting India, while interacting with Indian political leaders wanted to know what work they do. The unanimous reply was ‘politics’.

He replied that he had understood that they were politicians but what he asked was what their profession was. He also gave his own example saying that while he was a politician, he was also farming as that was his job. The Indian politicians kept insisting that ‘politics’ and nothing else was their job.

Gender Issues

Nari Shakti is not just the flavour of the season, nor even of all four seasons of the year, but seems to be a favoured policy of the present government for a number of years. Yet, the case of justice for our girl wrestlers, who were feted as ‘our betis’ not in too distant a past, when the medals they had won at different international sporting events were the toast of the nation, stands shattered.

How the political leaders of the ruling party shifted their stances overnight would put even the chameleons to shame. From every leader from the highest to the lowest and every other political honcho, vying with each other to be the first in line to have his or her photograph taken with them and their medals, every one of them quietly and shamefully skulked away when the girls were molested.

In the last nearly six months it has all changed, since the girl wrestlers first went public with the nefarious actions of no less a person than the President of the Wrestling Federation of India. That the activities fell directly in the ambit of the law, well known as the PoSH Act, was conveniently shoved under the carpet. Incidentally, the full form of the Act is ‘The Sexual Harassment of Women at Workplace (Prevention, Prohibition and Redressal) Act, which was passed in 2013.

It defines sexual harassment, lays down the procedures for complaint and inquiry, and the action to be taken in cases of sexual harassment.

Since the present government has a stranglehold on the media, the incident was glossed over by the media, but we do have a vibrant ‘Social Media’, which kept us all informed about how every nefarious method was used to keep the accused ‘safe’.

This dubious episode reminded me of one of the better so-called Spaghetti Western movies one had watched in our younger days in the 1960’s, as young adults, titled “For a Few Dollars More”.

This grand and corny Western movie -gloriously greasy, sweaty, hairy, bloody and violent that Hollywood used to make in Italy, is where the main protagonists were Clint Eastwood, as ‘The Man with No Name’, who chews and spits out dozens of cigars and Lee Van Cleef, as Col Mortimor. After a memorable duel in which they shoot each other's hats to pieces, Eastwood and Van Cleef join up to collect the dollars.

In the present case, there were neither Dollars nor Duels, it was a case of “For a Few Seats More in Future Elections” as the accused, being a very influential person was to be ‘preserved’, especially as General Elections were on the horizon. Hence, Nari Shakti could be dispensed with; thus, was it sacrificed at the altar of votes and elections.

Reverting back to the women wrestlers, they persisted in their highly legitimate demands, despite all kinds of pressures, inducements and threats; truly Nari Shakti in action.

Act I Scene I of the government’s actions concluded when the peaceful agitators were literally dragged away and a mock election of the Wrestling Federation was ordered, hoping against hope that this would be the end of the episode and Operation Bachao would end.

But that was not to be. The concerned wrestlers have returned their medals, the mock elections have been suspended, the international sports bodies want answers; but the issue is wide open. So much for the Nari Shakti, an important policy of the present ruling dispensation.

There are cases galore of women being mistreated in every facet of their lives. If we want them to be active partners with their male counterparts, then we have to stop merely pontificating and commence empowering them. The “For a Few Seats More” syndrome must end.

Inauguration of the Ram Mandir at Ayodhya

Having learnt my religion from realistic parents and the schools I attended (a Catholic Convent and a well-known Ram Ashram School) and later when I joined the Army, my views on religion are those of a realist and completely different from what the Hindutva disciples state. A few strands of my thinking are briefly stated.

Religious places have a special appeal for all Indians, especially as we are a highly diverse nation where for centuries and millenniums practically all religions have flourished. Peoples of different faiths have lived in harmony, except during those periods when those wielding power have used violence for religious conversions or for subduing established dynasties.

There have also been religious conversions peacefully, when whole kingdoms have adopted a different religion en masse.

As an example, Afghanistan was mostly a Hindu country with many Hindu kingdoms when the great epic of the Mahabharat Battle took place; then it became a largely Buddhist state; when Islam came on the scene, it changed religions again. Similarly, the Hindus flourished in the various kingdoms of SouthEast Asia; some states became Buddhist thereafter and some adopted Islam.

Hinduism itself was more a way of life and not a rigid or quasi-religious entity, with a pantheon of Gods and Goddesses where nature was overarching. The religious legacy we inherited from the Vedas was more spiritual than ritualistic, the philosophical pillars being Dharam and Karam. At various periods, ritualistic and spiritual aspects came to the fore.

The broad Hindu philosophy was at various times sought to be made simpler. This churning manifested itself into making the Hindu religion more acceptable and simpler.

Even the Noble Laureate Rabinder Nath Tagore, realist as he was, tried his best to shun rituals and make the religion simpler, following in the footsteps of Raja Ram Mohan Roy; the Arya Samaj Movement; the philosophical and religious discourses of Swami Vivekanand; and other reformists.

In the mid-19th century, Karl Marx wrote that religion is “the opiate of the masses” – disconnecting disadvantaged people from the here and now, and dulling their engagement in progressive politics”.

It had little effect when it was written, but politicians all over the world have exploited it. What has been unfolding in our country in the last few months regarding the inauguration of the Ram Mandir on 22 Jan 2024 at Ayodhya, perhaps endorses the statement made by Marx nearly two centuries back.

Nothing needs to be added except to confirm that the inauguration is more a political event than a religious one, as stated by many, including the heads of the four holiest Math’s of the Hindu religion, the Shankaracharya’s who are considered the most knowledgeable on the Hindu religion.

For a civilisational hero like Lord Ram, who inspires adulation and reverence across nations, besides of course India to have a grand temple at his believed birthplace is appropriate, but to make it a political jamboree is incorrect.

India is at a crossroad today. We continue to be both highly religious and a highly politicised nation.

Our challenges are or should be to keep these two aspects in separate compartments and focus on making our country a great power that is looked up to by the comity of nations.

This translates into abandoning or at least simplifying our governance and discarding the crutches of religion. At the same time, we need to move away from propaganda and illusory dependence on photo-ops, media-control and well thought out policies keeping the end-states in mind.

Political leaders rarely think of end states but we in the military cannot think of an operation without keeping in mind the end state, which we consider more important than even the details of the operation.

Lastly, please do not take the military for granted. It is the only asset and instrument that still works and delivers in all assigned tasks. Jai Hind.

Lt General Vijay Oberoi is a former Vice Chief of Army Staff and the Former Founder Director of the Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS), and now its Director General Emeritus. Views expressed are the writer’s own.