India Must Use Investigation To De-Hyphenate Pakistan

The de-escalation between India and Pakistan was a low hanging fruit for the United States (US) President Trump to help bolster his self-created image of a peace maker and a world leader, who could resolve long outstanding issues in days.

But that would require a clear understanding of the geo-politics, how fast it is changing and which direction it is moving. Hence, Trump is finding it difficult to negotiate effectively with other countries in this competitive world while trying to protect his interests and that of those close to him.

However, in the India Pakistan conflict, Trump knew that his administration could easily exercise leverage on both the countries, as India remains US’s strategic partner and Pakistan is always in need of bail out packages from the International Monetary Fund, where the US has around 16 percent voting leverage.

In a hurry to take credit for the intervention to bring peace between the two countries, Trump didn’t even let India and Pakistan first announce the cease-fire to their respective countrymen.

Trump went on to boast repeatedly that he averted a potential nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan, which he claimed could have killed millions. It is difficult to understand as to why Trump is repeatedly telling the world that the conflict between India and Pakistan could have degenerated to a nuclear war when none of the sides had spoken about nukes.

However, the crucial question remains as to why his administration intervened after four days, when only a day earlier, US Vice President JD Vance had said that it was “fundamentally none of our business”?

In my understanding, one possible explanation is that perhaps the Trump administration took some time to realise that India had reportedly lost at least one Rafale jet aircraft to PL15 air-to -air missiles mounted on J-10C jet aircraft supplied by China to Pakistan. India has not acknowledged the same.

If true, then it may change the strategic equation between India and Pakistan, as the former would henceforth be facing a Pakistan-China axis. Both China and Pakistan developed this strategic embrace post changes made by India on August 5, 2019, in the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir.

While India remains averse to openly acknowledging the US intervention, Pakistan always welcomes international focus on Kashmir and warns the world that the issue is a “nuclear flashpoint” in the region. What must be bothering the US is that many countries in the world would soon be lining up to acquire Chinese technology for their defence requirement. That would be a huge setback for the military industrial complex of the US that always had a technological edge.

There is no doubt that on the night intervening May 6-7, all the targets hit by the Indian Air Force were essentially used for terrorism against India. Damage to Mosques is just collateral, as all training camps have Mosques built for prayers for those undergoing arms training and waiting for launch. One can also be sure that India would have used all its might to cause damage to Pakistan’s military infrastructure thereafter during the conflict, which obviously Pakistan will not acknowledge.

With India now announcing a lowering of its threshold on the front of cross-border terrorism from Pakistan, the de-escalation between the two countries will remain tenuous and fragile. Keeping in mind Pakistan’s past behaviour on the issue of terrorism, it is unlikely that it will yield to the new Indian doctrine easily. What should further bother India is that China will soon speed up the process of filling gaps identified by it in Pakistan’s defence requirement, which could pose a challenge to India’s conventional superiority over Pakistan and any future response to acts of terrorism.

Now that the guns have fallen silent, will talks be held between the two countries as tweeted by Trump? Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has categorically said that the talks can only be held for the return of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and on terror (cross-border terrorism from Pakistan).

On the other side Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif called upon India to “sit together to talk on Kashmir and water”. Responding to the speech by PM Modi, he warned that “do not dictate us. Water is our red line; don’t even think about diverting our water”.

Besides, whenever India talks about terror, Pakistan will come out with its own version of India’s alleged involvement in supporting Baloch separatists and Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan with the help of the interim Taliban government in Afghanistan. So, basically both countries will exchange dossiers to buttress their respective claims against each other.

That is why it is of the utmost urgency that Indian agencies investigate the Pahalgam attack so that the evidence can be shared with the international community. It was seen that most of the countries had condemned the Pahalgam attack but had not overtly supported Indian actions thereafter.

Unfortunately, the terrorists are now using “ultra sets” customised by Chinese companies for the Pakistan army that combine cell phone capabilities with unique radio equipment that bypasses traditional mobile technologies like GSM or CDMA, making it difficult for interception. That will partially explain why movement of terrorists to Pahalgam was not noticed.

Notwithstanding the US intervention, cease-fire is a welcome development for the people of both India and Pakistan, particularly those living close to the international border and the line of control in Jammu and Kashmir.

It is once again an opportunity to build peace by taking forward the process initiated in February 2021 on the international border and the LOC. Activation of diplomatic channels with Pakistan is essential to address incidents of immediate concern to both sides so that military conflict can be avoided.

Meanwhile, on the domestic track, to improve the intelligence network, it is essential to build bridges with the people of Jammu and Kashmir. Restoration of complete statehood, empowering the elected government on all matters, including issuing domicile certificates and land rights, are some measures that can assuage the sentiments of the people.

Avinash Mohananey retired from the Indian Police Service.