Moral And Strategic Bankcruptcy

On June 22 President Trump boastfully put out on his rather spuriously termed social media platform Truth Social as follows:

“Tonight, I can report to the world that the strikes were a spectacular military success.

Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated. Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace. If they do not, future attacks will be a lot easier.”

We do not know whether the words “completely and totally obliterated” are correct. As the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency)’s Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi told the Security Council nobody knows the extent of damage.

Many experts believe that Iran had removed the enriched uranium before the attack. For example, satellite imagery from Maxar Technologies showed ‘unusual activity’ with a long line of vehicles. Therefore, we might take Trump’s words with a pinch of salt.

Before we consider what might happen next let us figure out why Israel and the U.S. have struck at Iran. Two men are responsible for this war: Netanyahu and Trump.

Wars are of two types, necessary and unnecessary. This one is totally unnecessary.

UNESCO’s constitution, drafted after World War 2 with a grim toll of about 80 million says:

“Since wars begin in the minds of men, it is in the minds of men that the defences of peace must be constructed.”

This war began in the mind of Prime Minister Netanyahu decades ago since the 1990s, and also in the mind of Trump around 2016.

In 2012 Netanyahu and his defence minister Ehud Barak ordered the IDF (Israeli Defence Forces) and Mossad to get ready to start a war within a few hours. The chief of staff Lt. General Gabi Ashkenazi and Mossad chief Meir Dagan refused and insisted that the cabinet alone could take such a decision. Netanyahu could not get the cabinet to approve his proposal.

This time Netanyahu decided to be devious. He wanted to surprise Iran. He announced that there would be no attack till June 15 and the negotiations between Iran and the U.S. scheduled to take place in Oman were over. Only if the talks fail, he explained, Israel would take military action.

According to the reputed Israeli daily Haaretz, Netanyahu and the Defence Minister in a secret meeting on June 9 decided to attack Iran. The matter was brought to the cabinet only on June 12. Ostensibly, the cabinet was to discuss the hostages held by Hamas. The attack started on June 13 early morning, by 3 a.m. Israeli time.

We need to go back to 2016 to understand why Trump is supporting Netanyahu. Trump, the candidate, was getting frustrated with the falling level of support he was getting. He decided to withdraw. Steve Bannion, a prominent neo-con took the lead and told Trump to fight on. Bannon gave Trump a recipe for success that included the U.S. walking out of the nuclear deal of Obama. Trump carried out this in 2018 and reimposed sanctions on Iran.

What was the reason for Netanyahu’s not waiting for the June 15 meeting in Oman? He was worried that Iran and the U. S. might come to an agreement and Trump will not permit Israel to start a war.

Netanyahu has sought to justify his aggression on two counts: to slow down or stop Iran’s project to make nuclear weapons, and to effect a regime change in Iran.

Let us assume for a moment that Netanyahu has destroyed all the nuclear facilities including Fordow and Natanz, with help from the Pentagon, and killed all the nuclear scientists on Mossad’s list. The facilities can be rebuilt and the scientists can be replaced over time.

In such an eventuality, Israel will follow its policy known as ‘mowing the lawn’ from time to time as the grass grows tall. That scenario fits with Netanyahu’s mindset. He is a warmonger who needs a war from time to time for his political survival and ideological obsessions.

Netanyahu is too intelligent not to know that the Iran nuclear deal – technically known as JCPOA (Joint Common Plan of Action) negotiated under the leadership of President Obama did prevent Iran from diverting any fissile material for making a nuclear bomb.

Still, he opposed it tooth and nail. Why? If the deal goes through, sanctions on Iran will be lifted and Iran will be a rival to Israel. Netanyahu wants Israel to be the hegemon in the region and all others should obey Israel’s instructions.

Why does Netanyahu want Israel to be the regional hegemon? He wants to realize the so-called Greater Israel project. The Likud party and its hardline supporters in the coalition in office have fantasies that Israel can expand or control the territory all the way from the Nile to the Euphrates. Their claim is based on The Genesis 15:18-21. The exact words are "from the brook of Egypt to the Euphrates". Prophet Abraham was born in Ur in Iraq.

The reader might wonder whether advancing territorial claims by quoting ancient religious texts is permitted by IL (International Law). The answer is a categorical no. However, the Zionists do not care for IL.

Let us take an example. Responding to an Iranian missile’s falling on Soroka Hospital in southern Israel on June 19 that caused considerable damage, Defence Minister Israel Katz said, "Khamenei openly declares that he wants Israel destroyed – he personally gives the order to fire on hospitals. He considers the destruction of the state of Israel to be a goal. Such a man can no longer be allowed to exist.”

The reader might wonder how many hospitals in Gaza has Israel destroyed? In short, the IL applies to the rest of the world, but not to Israel.

It is an established principle in ethics that if A is committing an offence and B had the means to stop A , then both A and B are responsible for the offence.

The Trump administration cannot always be trusted. On June 13 Israel attacked Iran. The first reaction was from Secretary of State Marc Rubio, “We are not involved in strikes against Iran and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region. Let me be clear: Iran should not target U.S. interests or personnel."

Soon Trump said that he was fully in the picture as he had been talking to Netanyahu. Obviously, Rubio was deliberately misleading all of us.

Trump has claimed that he had given 60 days to Iran which failed to agree to his proposal. Obviously, he wanted Iran to sign on the dotted line as the defeated Germany had to after World War 1.

Incidentally, did Trump give Netanyahu 60 days to prepare for the attack? The negotiations were a charade.

Netanyahu, as expected, congratulated and thanked Trump profusely. The U.K. and Germany have avoided criticizing the U.S. action and urged Iran to sit at the table to negotiate. They deliberately avoided asking Israel to stop its attack.

The U N Secretary General Antonio Guterres has appealed for de-escalation. Saudi Arabia and Qatar have expressed grave concern and urged de-escalation. Oman has roundly condemned the attack.

The most important actor in this regard is Russia. Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chief of Russia’s National Security Council, and a former president, has said that “several nations would be prepared to provide Iran with nuclear weapons.” We need not take this seriously. Perhaps, Medvedev is hinting that Russia might stop cooperating with America to prevent Iran from going nuclear.

The Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi is due to meet Putin on June 23, that is today.

What has been the response of the Iranians? Some have crossed over to Armenia. Teheran witnessed a huge rally in support of the government and President Masoud Pezeshkian was there.

Netanyahu’s project to effect a ‘regime change’ in Iran is destined to fail. There is much confusion of thought in media reports. A regime change and a regime collapse are different. There is no question of America repeating what it did in Iraq in 2003 when Saddam Hussein was killed and a set of Iraqis chosen by America was put in power. That could be done because American troops were in Iraq. We can be certain that there is no question of Israel risking sending troops to Iran. Ditto America.

It is ironic that Trump should host Field Marshal Munir at the White House and Pakistan should recommend Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize only to condemn the attack on Iran days later.

The media in the West and some in India too had speculated that Pakistan will support the U.S. attack on Iran by providing staging facilities. Dear reader, a good part of the media is bad!

How has India navigated the treacherous waters? India has by and large done its tight-rope walking with some skill. Prime Minister Modi has called for de-escalation.

There is one area India has faulted. There are about 36,000 and 10,000 Indians respectively in Israel and Iran . Repatriation from Iran has started. The Embassy in Israel has said that it would assist those who wish to leave. India should have initiated repatriation from both the countries much earlier.

We do not know how this unfolding tragedy is going to end. But it is reasonably clear that Trump could not have acted more unwisely and that Netanyahu might be hoisted on his own petard as Iran might finally decide to go nuclear. Saudi Arabia and Egypt might follow demolishing Israel’s monopoly in the region and the Greater Israel project.

It is absurd for Trump to ask Iran to stop the war. It is for Netanyahu who started the war with Trump’s green signal to stop it. We cannot expect Russia and China to be merely watching Netanyahu trying to bomb Iran to the smithereens. They are unlikely to get involved militarily. There is a lot they can do diplomatically to stop this madness.

Since Trump and Netanyahu have claimed that they have destroyed Iran’s nuclear programme, why do they continue the attack? Both are bankrupt morally and logically!

Ambassador K.P.Fabian retired from the Indian Foreign Service. The views expressed here are the writer’s own.