Bob Dylan’s words, “how many deaths will it take till we know that too many people have died?”, makes more and more sense, given the canvas of present day conflicts. Whether it is Russia-Ukraine imbroglio, or what is unfolding in Gaza people have ceased to be the centre of gravity in today’s neo counter-terrorism.

This has happened, paradoxically, notwithstanding the stance taken by state and non-state actors that they champion the people’s cause.

The landscape of contemporary conflicts and the narratives, while under execution do not factor in, collaterals. The world order, behind a facade of liberalism, has evolved into hard core realism. The elite policy makers pretext their actions on the platform of ‘people’s rights and claims’, but tend to sideline these very issues in their actions.

In the context of the Israel-Hamas conflict, few facets become crucial to be flagged. First, there could not have been a bigger harm to Palestinian cause by what Hamas committed on October 7.

Second, in the context of Israel’s counter, there exist critique and disapproval by many sections of Jews that view Israel’s actions as being uncalled for. The International Relations’ tenet of ‘Balance of Power’ has been overstated and over-stretched in this case. In fact this attempted balance has too many imbalances at the cost of people’s interest.

Decision making is monopolised by the elite governing the states, and also by the non state leaderships. The supposed agency of the people is becoming irrelevant. The humongous displacements and casualties of people on both sides of this divide goes on to prove that ‘the more things change, the more they stay the same’.

Neither Israel nor Hamas has changed its decades-old playbook. And the endgame is not even discernible to the policy makers. It appears that the long term strategic choices are presently limited to open-ended violence. An internationally mediated truce, may be what we look forward to, though sadly, by then too many people would have died.

Assurances given by the world powers such as the United States and the United Kingdom have not been bereft of biases, and do not factor in the victims, making them inconsequential. Ironically, the definition of human rights is constrained by equating Hamas with Palestinians, thereby committing in a sense, exactly what the terror group wants.

Encouragingly, POTUS said, “what sets us apart from the terrorists is we believe in the fundamental dignity of every human life.” Conversion of this statement is what humanity awaits and the US has the wherewithal to make a difference.

India’s official stand on the issue has continued to be consistent, the government has condemned the terror act of October 7, differentiating Hamas from the Palestinian cause. However, it is felt that in wake of Israel’s hardened stance, India is likely to face challenges in this regard and may have to do some tight rope walking. However, a potential opportunity could exist for India to facilitate untangling of the situation.

Coming back to the issue of people as the centre in the realm of terror and counter-terror, several dividing lines get blurred as the grey zone conflicts continue to evolve, the world over. The prime ones being: difference between state and non-state actors, between religion or ethnicities and terrorism that clearly manifests in shaping public perceptions.

A new low in this regard was seen, even in India. Proliferation of fake messages on social media, with ulterior motives to create binaries was rampant. Supporting the cause of Palestine was often equated with supporting Hamas terror. It was the government’s public reiteration of its stand vis-a-vis the issues that assuaged the situation.

With Israel all set for ground offensive that shall hinge on military operations in urban terrain, the complications are likely to enhance manifold. Urban terrain owing to its texture and with people who live there, is never neutral. The battlefield is compartmentalised in such terrains, with superiority in technology of stronger armies getting compromised.

In all possibility, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will increase its tolerance of more and more collateral damage, which perhaps shall suit them. Irrespective of the machinations by either the IDF or Hamas, too many people will obviously be dying.

Colonel Shashank Ranjan is a retired Infantry Officer who has served in several appointments in Rashtriya Rifles formations, and commanded a battalion. He now teaches at the O.P. Jindal Global University. Views expressed are the writer’s own.

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