Weeks before Prime Minister Narendra Modi attended the SCO Summit in Tianjin from August 31 to September 1, 2025, the media reports said Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin would be coming to India and both Modi and Putin will be travelling to China together – without elaborating whether they would travel in the same aircraft.

But that did not happen. PM Modi first visited Japan and then proceeded to China.

Subsequent media reports talked of a plot to assassinate the Indian Prime Minister in China (CIA?), linking this to a former USSF officer found dead in a hotel in Dhaka, Bangladesh. A writeup mentioned that Putin came to Modi’s rescue by accommodating the PM in his luxurious and heavily armoured limousine ‘Aurus Senat’, and both drove together for the SCO Summit while China’s Ministry of State Security and Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service,SVR took control of the situation. It was also reported that after the Tianjin summit, Modi did not return to the “same” hotel.

It is now being said that Putin’s upcoming visit to India is expected in early December 2025, which will coincide with the 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit. This would be Putin’s first visit to India since the onset of the US-led NATO war on Russia using Ukraine as its proxy; underscoring Moscow’s commitment to sustaining its long-standing defence partnership with New Delhi. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is expected to visit beforehand to finalise the Summit details and review progress on key strategic and defence projects.

India is now set to purchase five additional S-400 air defence missile systems from Russia. This represents a major step in India’s ongoing efforts to modernise its air defence architecture and bolster deterrence capabilities against regional threats. With the blend of direct imports and domestic production, the deal also enhances India’s defence industrial ecosystem while reinforcing its strategic ties with Russia.

Russia has proposed that India can use its existing Su-30MKI manufacturing infrastructure to produce the fifth-generation Su-57E fighter jet, should a deal be finalized. This would allow for a relatively quick start to production at facilities currently operated by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL). This proposal aligns with India's ‘Make in India’ initiative to promote local manufacturing and development of military systems. The deal, if signed, could involve some squadrons supplied directly by Russia, and others under Make in India.

Ironically, Tajikistan has ended India’s nearly two-decade operational presence at its Ayni Air Base due to Russian and Chinese pressure; forcing India to review its regional presence in Central Asia and foreign policy fiasco.

This despite Russia and Tajikistan extending the lease for Russia's 201st military base for 30 years on October 2012 until 2042, and Putin recently attending a C5 summit in Tajikistan to strengthen military cooperation. Did this happen because India drastically reduced defence imports from Russia to appease the US?

Trump has recently indicated that he may visit India, while saying India has “substantially” reduced oil imports from Russia, reiterating he affected the India-Pakistan ceasefire in May this year and claiming this time he saw “eight” aircraft going down in this war. He again called India a “great country” and Modi a “great friend” but has given no indication of reducing the mammoth tariffs on India and clearly wants reduction of India-Russia trade.

Interestingly, writer Brahma Chellaney notes that over the past six months Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal has been talking of trade negotiations progressing well (despite America’s threat of 50% tariffs backed by the India-US power asymmetry) camouflaging America’s real demands behind bland talk of farming, fisheries and MSMEs

Trump’s intention appears to be an in-person meeting with Modi, which the latter has been avoiding, including attending the recent ASEAN Summit virtually. Trump could – to test PM Modi’s response– also reiterate during his visit his role in forcing the India-Pakistan ceasefire by threatening to stop trade with both. But Trump’s prime focus could well be to force the Indo-US trade deal - as he has done with China after meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping; which is why Trump has been hinting that the trade deal with India would be soon.

Trump is also crazy about procuring more and more Rare Earth Elements (REEs), with China holding 44 million MT of REEs compared to America’s 1.9 million MT. Having signed REE deals with Australia, Canada, Cambodia, Japan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Thailand, Ukraine and now trying the same with Central Asian Republics (with Trump hosting leaders of five Central Asian nations at the White House), Trump can be expected to demand an REE deal with India in exchange of lowering tariffs, since India holding 6.9 million MT is in third place globally behind China’s 44 million MT and Brazil 21 million MT.

Finally, it remains to be seen between Putin and Trump who will visit India first and what will be the cumulative geopolitical fallout for India after both these visits?

Lt. General Prakash Katoch is an Indian Army veteran. Views expressed here are the writer’s own.

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