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Just a few hours before announcing a two-week suspension of bombing Iran, US President Donald Trump wrote: “A whole civilization (Persian) will die tonight, never to be brought back again……now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change …..maybe something revolutionary can happen ….one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the world…. God Bless the Great People of Iran!”
The gist of Trump’s next post claimed that Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Asim Munir requested him to hold off sending the destructive forces to Iran subject to opening of the Straits of Hormuz; this will be a double-sided ceasefire; America has exceeded all military objectives; a 10-point proposal received from Iran is workable; the problem is close to resolution.
Gist of response by Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Aragachi included: in response to Shehbaz Sharif’s message and Trump’s acceptance of Iran’s 10-point proposal as the basis for negotiations, if attacks against Iran are halted, Iran will cease defensive operations; safe passage through Hormuz will be allowed for two weeks with due consideration of technical limitations.
The last telephone call from Trump to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, ostensibly to keep him in the loop but simultaneously detailing Pakistan to mediate a US-Iran ceasefire was a deliberate snubi. This drew adverse comments on India’s failed foreign policy despite making every effort to appease Trump; pointing out that Pakistan’s diplomacy is far more successful than India’s.
But now Pakistan’s success in brokering a two-week US-Iran ceasefire is attracting global praise. A Washington-based Indian-American journalist posted on X: “Whichever way you slice it, this is a huge diplomatic win for Pakistan. Islamabad comes across as a responsible actor with enough trust in key world capitals to help avert a potential global catastrophe.” Another Indo-American wrote on social media: “And this is how global politics is played and running rings around our super smart External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar.”
Trump’s comment of wiping out the Iranian civilization reinforces his imbecility and deranged state of mind. His plans to blow up all power plants in Iran after bombing civilians, hospitals, even a primary girl’s school, bridges, railways, oil storage and the like wouldn’t kill a civilization, only innocent people.
In fact, the US-Israel plan to orchestrate an orange revolution in Iran has backfired totally. Trump also forgot that in the Vietnam War, US forces killed 2-3 million Vietnamese (mostly civilians), and used chemicals, defoliants and the worst possible torture techniques, including interrogating men and women in flying helicopters and then throwing them down; all of which is encapsulated in war museums of Vietnam. But with 58,220 American military fatalities and over 300,000 wounded, the US had to pull out with their tails tucked between their legs. The Korean civilization and its grit remained intact.
Trump has shown the same idiocy in seeking USD 152 million to reopen the notorious Alcatraz prison. But if Trump plans to use nukes in Iran to ‘kill’ the Persian civilization, he should remember nuking Hiroshima and Nagasaki didn’t destroy the Japanese civilization. Besides, many analysts, American included, say that if Iran is nuked, China-Russia will nuke Israel out of existence and a global nuclear war will engulf America as well.
Trump’s claim of America having exceeded all military objectives is laughable. In his State of the Union address Trump claimed to have obliterated Iran’s nuclear program while even the B-2 bombings cannot damage anything beyond 50-feet below rocky surface. Next was the claim of destroying Iran’s missile production capabilities but even Israel believes now that Iran still has more than 1,000 missiles in its arsenal after intense fighting over so many days having effectively targeted Israel, US bases and allies in the gulf and US air and naval assets.
Trump’s frustration is more because NATO refused his demand to help open the Straits of Hormuz by force; an unworkable demand because of the casualties in men and material it would entail, while Trump on his part even withdrew the US minesweeping vessels.
There is also the question of casualties, which are problematic for Israel and the US due to public opinion in these countries. Israel has reportedly suffered some 19 to 28 Israeli fatalities with over 3,000 wounded, while Israel’s Army Chief has been pointing to a 15,000 manpower shortage in the IDF.
The US has reportedly suffered more than a dozen (13-15) American service members killed and around 300 injured, including 12 wounded at the Prince Sultan Air Base. How many of the injured in Israel and the US succumbed to their injuries will never be disclosed.
There are multiple reasons, not his idiosyncrasy alone, as to why Trump agreed to a two-week truce: absence of a plausible and workable strategy; inability to achieve stated objectives of destroying Iran’s nuclear program - no matter how peaceful; inability to finish off Iranian missiles; inability to affect effective regime change – with Iran in automatic mode; inability to orchestrate mass rebellion against the Iranian regime; NATO’s refusal to accept Trump’s irrational demands; Trump’s falling approval ratings – down to mere 35%; China watching US-Israel’s unsuccessful attempts to win the war; Iran’s stunning resilience.
But the most prominent reason is the failed attempt with boots on ground to seize 600-kg of Uranium stored by Iran, in which process the Americans lost two C-130 aircraft. This was akin to America’s failed attempt to rescue American hostages in Iran in 1980 albeit at a smaller scale. The fiasco was covered up with the rescue of a US pilot from the F-15 jet shot down by Iran.
The argument that losing the two C-130s was a deception plan, is far from the truth. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth deserves to be sacked for this fiasco but that will not happen because that would amount to Trump admitting failure of his own hairbrained plan.
What happens now with the White House claim of having won the war getting mocked?
The two-week truce does not mean permanent peace in West Asia. Control of the Straits of Hormuz will continue to remain with Iran and Iran has said that the ceasefire must include Lebanon.
Trump will keep attempting an assured win, no matter how unachievable, to boost his chances in the midterm elections. For Benjamin Netanyahu, cessation of hostilities implies reopening of corruption cases against him. Therefore, a complete ceasefire is proving difficult even before the formal negotiations have begun with Israel’s bombing of Lebanon creating serious friction.
Will better sense prevail?
Lt General Prakash Katoch is an Indian Army veteran. Views expressed here are personal.
