US President Donald Trump has announced a five day ceasefire following what he claims have been a strong and good round of talks with Iran. That no one believes him is another issue. And Iran’s denial feeds into Trump’s lack of credibility, even amongst those who seemingly support him in this war and the ongoing genocide in Gaza. The reasons for dismissing Trump’s claims might be different but Iran’s immediate denial also seems to suggest that not much is happening - as yet- on the talks front.

A bit ironic that this time around some negotiations are taking place. Different countries - Pakistan, Egypt to name just two– claim to be the mediators between Israel-US and Iran but there is little evidence of their involvement just yet. That talks are taking place is visible in the slight let up in the violence for the moment, and Trump’s own loud and almost continuous brandishment of this new ‘achievement’, just a day or two after he threatened to blow Iran apart.

Israel, needless to say, wants to continue with the war and is visibly opposed to the US efforts to make a deal for peace. Instead it continues with its Greater Israel project with the escalated attacks on the West Bank, continued violence against the Palestinians in Gaza, and regular bombing of Lebanon. Benjamin Netanyahu, who seems to give little thought to the costs of war being borne by his citizens who are feeling the heat of Iranian missiles for the first time in decades, wants to continue the wars that he thinks will actually deliver Greater Israel. That this stems from complete ignorance of the region is material for another editorial.

Iran is in the driver's seat at the moment. A little country with no military except for missiles and sheer guts is taking on the mightiest power in the globe, and rather successfully. It has used targeted strikes to hurt the American, Gulf and global economy, with amazing precision. The attacks were expected, and the result has shown a level of planning that encompasses not the moment but the years and decades ahead. Trump has almost admitted that after taking out the entire top leadership of Iran, they had expected capitulation. Commentators have pointed out that Israel had assured the likes of Jared Kushner who seems to be in charge of Trump’s West Asia policy, that once the top leaders were killed Mossad would bring the people out on the streets for a regime change! The ignorance did not account for the simple fact that any such violence would only unite the Persians, and bring them together as a solid block behind their country.

The world still tends to forget that Iran has been under attack since 1953, and under sanctions for four decades. That it could fight and survive the bloodiest duo of current times Israel and the US, is a feat that will in all probability inspire books and deep military and strategic analysis as time goes by. That Russia and China have been helping remains a matter of conjecture, as both have managed to retain a certain strategic independence leaving the material help for analytical conjecture. For the record they have supported Iran, given out warnings against the war, and yet in the United Nations abstained from a key resolution allowing the Gulf countries to claim their rights against Iran.

For Iran the bar is to survive. And it is doing much more than that. Trump wants peace now and a breathing respite. Iran is determined not to give it without assurances and guarantees for a long term, almost permanent, halt to the war. It has laid out a number of conditions, all aimed at respect and sovereignty, for the region. An end to Israeli hostilities. It is clear that after losing its Supreme Leader and senior ministers and administrators, Iran is in no mood to compromise. It has chalked out a strategy to continue, unless its demands are met. This determination is visible, and has buttressed the global pressure on Trump to cease and desist. For instance Europe that was divided about the war when it broke out, is now united in statements that the war must end. Spain led the way from day one, and Germany is now the last to follow.

By killing its leaders, and the schoolgirls, and the sailors returning unarmed from a peaceful mission, the US and Israel have left Iran without any choice. Iranians are a proud people, and will not succumb to such pressure unlike the Saudis and the Gulf countries that have trained themselves to crawl for luxury. And unlike Iraq and Libya that could barely fight back the ‘shock and awe’ military of the Americans, has shown to the world that it has the capability to stand up to the super power and make it bleed economically.

The war has not ended yet. But perhaps if Trump is right for once, there might be a silver streak at the end of this tunnel of violence.

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