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Operation ‘Sindoor’ is in the headlines with National Security Advisor Ajit Doval daring the world to provide at least one single image to prove India suffered damages in the conflict with Pakistan.(operation-sindoor-nsa-ajit-doval-debunks-international-media-claims-dares-to-provide-proof-of-damage-on-indian-side.)
General Jerome Bellanger, French Air Force Chief maintained India did lose Rafale (s) although the Dassault CEO covered up citing high-altitude technical failure (iaf-lost-1-rafale-aircraft-french-air-force-boss/).
Op ‘Sindoor’ is only “paused” but we don’t strike (like Israel would) when terrorist leaders hold anti-India public rallies in Pakistan (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ugnoa32YV1w).
The question of who ordered the lifting of security cover in Pahalgam before the massacre on April 22, 2025 remained unanswered. But now after 82 days, Lt. Governor J&K, Manoj Sinha admitted a security lapse and took full responsibility (https://x.com/Pawankhera/status/1944611931781755233?t=5HXMuVrPwo4MmFMp1y5fEQ&s=03),
Recent news of the Indian Army’s 100-drone strike deep inside Myanmar on ULFA that also killed the terror organisation’s armed wing chief SS Lt General Nayan Medhi has been denied in a statement released by the Army (https://x.com/vishnundtv/status/1944288131429097627).
But some sources continue to claim this action did happen. If so, why would the Army deny it; this being an apt signal to Bangladesh’s current regime. And, why would Beijing not report this, especially with China now focused on Myanmar’s minerals.
Addressing the Police Academy, Hyderabad as NSA in 2014, Doval said there will be no war and everything will have to be done by the police. Houthi drone attacks in Saudi Arabia and the Nagorno Karabakh conflicts prompted were templated on India; calls in India for the Army manpower cut down by 1,00,000. Later, regular recruitment in the Army was also stopped for two years, to thrust Agniveers upon the military. Doval publicly denounced the Army’s regimental system; was this an indication of wanting the Army to adopt the police pattern?
The Indian Military faces significant manpower shortages, specifically, the Army has a shortfall of about one lakh personnel, including officers, JCOs and NCOs; while we juggle between this is not the era of war, showing the lal ankh (red eye) to China, and accepting a premature ceasefire in Op ‘Sindoor - even as there is talk of a future 2.5 to 5-front war.
The Ukraine war has reinvigorated templating conflict in India. The argument is that Russia’s strength hasn’t subjugated Ukraine; but Russia is battling NATO (Ukraine is proxy) and Moscow must keep in mind that Ukraine is targeting the civilian population of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, as well as Crimea.
Another postulation is that new-age warfare consists of drones and missiles, with ground troops becoming inessential; more so with America plans using drones instead of bullets (https://www.eurasiantimes.com/edited-treat-drones-like-bullets-hegseth/?amp).
But America’s mainland is not threatened and the US prefers using proxies over its own troops. We can’t deny the relevance of territory in the Indian context - Chinese-Pakistani claims on Indian Territory; Union Home Minister Amit Shah announcing in Parliament “we will take back POK and Aksai Chin; and Bangladesh’s Yunus regime eyeing India’s northeastern states.
India’s foreign policy is under heavy strain. For the 23rd time, US President Donald Trump has declared, “We settled war between India and Pakistan and avoided nuclear war. Both leaders are great leaders” (https://x.com/Amockx2022/status/1944798229998325978?t=2vLN9TMlQZXAeh8ekTMLnw&s=03).
PM Modi has never responded to Trump’s claim. Also, Trump is blatantly anti-BRICS and India is now scheduled to chair the 2026 BRICS Summit.
Jaishankar was recently in China for the SCO foreign ministers’ meet where he met Chinese Vice President Han Zheng and said India-China relations are steadily improving. Jaishankar’s calls of “zero tolerance to terrorism” and “de-induction of troops along the LAC” is for the consumption of our indigenous population; knowing the pullback of the PLA in Eastern Ladakh won’t happen.
Significantly just before Jaishankar’s visit, China’s embassy in India said that “reincarnation and succession of the Dalai Lama is inherently an internal affair of China….. Tibet issue is a “thorn” in India-China relations…”.
India has still to register a formal protest against one, the Chinese continue to occupy a major portion of Doklam Plateau after the India-China standoff was called off in 2017; two, China shifting the LAC westward in Eastern Ladakh in 2020; three, new Chinese villages established in Arunachal Pradesh.
China’s call for the Dragon-Elephant Dance is the usual sweet rhetoric with Beijing always ready with a knife at the back. China views India as a rival in Asia and in the American camp no matter what India tries to portray. Despite the trade off in Eastern Ladakh, we cannot be sanguine there will be no more conflict.
As China’s G695 expressway (second through Aksai Chin) comes close to Galwan, Hot Springs and Pangong Tso (around 2032-2033), conflict is certain with China seeking more depth in Ladakh. This does not mean a conflict cannot take place earlier, with China arming Pakistan-Bangladesh-Myanmar.
A multi-front war would deny India inter-theatre switching forces. In the interim, China would like to use road/rail communications via Nepal and India to Chittagong (Bangladesh); as part of broadening relations and improving communications. This will have its own implications.
The US wants to use India, Japan, South Korea as proxies against China. Both the US and China have the DNA of a bully; if you don't stand up and look them in the eye, they will mount on your head and rub your face in the dirt. This requires Comprehensive National Power (CNP), which can’t neglect building military power and political will.
Top risks for India in the Global Risks Report 2025 include water supply shortages, misinformation and disinformation, erosion of human rights and civic freedom, pollution (air, water, and soil), labour and talent shortages, and navigating a fragmented global landscape including US-China rivalry.
How much has changed since 2020 when the then Army Chief was told not to open fire on the PLA? We need a comprehensive threat assessment with periodic updates, holistic review of CNP, a well-defined security strategy, and more political will.
Much more needs to be invested in defence and the military provided more muscle; which presently is underequipped. Any ad-hoc approach and templating conflict for building military strength must be avoided. Studying ancient history is fine but not sufficient by itself.
The ground forces will continue to play a vital role in national defence. We need to integrate legacy platforms with state-of-the-art and futuristic technologies, forming the basis of our strategy and tactics. Effect-based operations (EBOs) by ‘smart’ militaries would win against ‘big’ militaries. Learning faster than adversaries to combat multi-directional, multi-domain operations, handled simultaneously at the strategic, operational and tactical levels, is the need of the hour.
Lt General Prakash Katoch is an Indian Army veteran. The views expressed here are the writer’s own.
