The Gulf Sheikhs Woo Trump - For What?

The world watched with fascination and horror – I do not think there was delight in any sector except big business perhaps– as United States President Donald Trump made his way through the Gulf with the Sheikhs all coming out to greet him with a welcome that stretched the imagination.

Glitter and gold literally lined his path as he arrived like the conquering hero surrounded by the big names in business, including our own Mukesh Ambani of course. The breathless tour gave Trump mind boggling deals in defence, AI and other sectors and even a luxury jet that he has accepted as Air Force One, regardless of some controversy at home. Lucrative as Trump likes it, servile as he loves it, particularly now that many in the world and in America are highly critical of his policies and authoritarian style of functioning.

Many of course, including in the Arab world, watched the ceremonies with sheer disgust. Watched the leaders of the rich Gulf countries lay out the red carpet replete with feasts and monies even as the Palestinians are being killed in what is widely recognised as a genocide. A genocide carried out by Israel and enabled by the US, and Trump who has publicly declared his mission to throw out all the surviving Palestinians and convert Gaza into a real estate riviera.

There was not a word from either the Sheikhs or the US President on this issue, even as they wined and dined and signed deals to make themselves relevant again. Israel continued bombing and killing Palestinian children with the deaths not allowed to mangle the festivities around Trump in the Gulf.

At the political level it was a visit that removed the fig leaf from the Gulf countries and their so called love for the Palestinians. It was clear from the last few days that the genocide in Gaza was not the issue uppermost on the agenda, if on the agenda at all, as the disparity in visuals from the Gulf capitals and Gaza remained absolutely unbelievable. The three Gulf states provided glittering platforms for Trump to speak as he wished, while they stood by and applauded over and over again with smiles stretching from ear to ear.

Of course there is an emerging analysis that in trying to make sense of this Gulf subjugation tries to project all this differently. And relies almost entirely on Trump’s decision not to visit Israel during this trip. But ignore it altogether.

This is how it goes, with arguments that have some merit, with time being the real tester of course:

One, Israel is upset. Upset because Trump did not visit TelAviv at this crucial juncture but instead preferred to stay with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE. It is clear that if he had visited Israel he would have had to endorse Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and also speak at least a few words about the situation in Gaza. And did not visit because

a) he did not want to speak on the situation at this stage, and this does feed into the market that perhaps he does not want to be tied down by words of support for Israel that is carrying out a vicious genocide in Gaza;

And b) the Gulf countries despite their support for Trump have still kept to a ‘hands off’ policy insofar as Israel is concerned and might not have been so generous had Trump scheduled a visit to Tel Aviv as well.

Of course the contradiction lies in Saudi Arabia’s early moves to repair diplomatic ties with Israel, and its inability to speak out loudly clearly against the genocide and the current starvation of little children and the remaining population in Gaza.

Two, the Gulf is trying to replace Israel in the equation with the US. And that despite the powerful Jewish lobby in America, the rich Gulf countries used their money and resources to convince Trump that they were equally if not more reliable. And could provide an extremely important platform for the US President in the Middle East, with money and rich deals. The trillions promised in various agreements provided the window for all and more that was on offer, for a President always looking for money and credit as a measure of reliability and support.

The whisper that is being heard through former US bureaucrats online is that Israel has little to offer except war and mayhem. And Trump is seriously looking to develop a counter — read The Gulf— to Israel’s influence.

Time alone will tell, as Trump has not said a word against Israel and in support of the Palestinians. With the result that the US is getting ensconced as an enabler of the worst kind of violence the world has seen in this century.

Three, it is true though that the Gulf countries are working to broker a peace deal between the US and Iran, much to the chagrin of Netanyahu for whom Iran remains a major enemy. Again the jury is out on this one, only because Trump is unpredictable and can change course in favour of a nuclear agreement. At the moment however, he has spoken out against Iran demanding a nuclear agreement. And Iran has responded by attacking him directly with the Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian asking, ““Which one of this president’s words should we believe? His message of peace, or his message of massacre of human beings ?” This deal is also far from being done.

In short, the areas that could open as an alternative to current US policy in the Middle East, are still closed despite the glamour of the Gulf visit. It must be remembered that these countries have always remained out of tune with the aspirations of their own people, let alone the region, and have made peace with Washington over and over again with the backdrop of the Iraq invasions; the Syrian regime change; the war on Libya and its continuous intervention in the region. As pointed out Saudi Arabia was on the verge of signing a diplomatic agreement with Israel before all violence broke loose. And there is no reason to presume, given the optics of the recent visit, that the Royal Family looking for its own survival will not sign such an agreement at some point in the not so distant future.

It is difficult for the American establishment to change course, and move away from its ally in the Middle East. Commentator Thomas Friedman has however been pointing out that the Netanyahu government is not a strategic ally for Washington in any sense of the term, and that Trump would do well to recognise this and take the necessary measures to disentangle himself from the Israel government. Not from Israel of course.

The reason why all this is even being discussed — under Biden it would not have been as he was predictable and safe insofar as long determined US policy was concerned —is because Trump is unpredictable; swayed by money and flattery; and clearly not very happy with Netanyahu. Whether the last will be assuaged by a regime change in Israel remains to be seen, but that is probably as far as the current US President will go on Israel. Even he will not move policy and support from TelAviv to Riyadh as is being wildly conjectured.

In short the Arab Sheikhs will have to live with their support for and complicity in the ongoing genocide. There is no magic wand that Trump will wave for them despite the gifts and the trillions pledged in American defense and AI.