WAR…?

The days of suspense following the terror attack on the tourists in Pahalgam, Kashmir ended in the dead of night. Indian missiles hit nine targets in Pakistan with New Delhi making it clear that it was in retaliation to the terror attack that left 26 innocent tourists dead and several injured. It was calculated and precise, New Delhi said in a statement, making it clear that targets were terrorist camps in the selected areas, and not civilians. One of the precision strikes was at Muridke, just about 40 km from Pakistan’s major city Lahore. Although details of ‘Operation Sindoor’ as it has been named by the military are still to emerge at the time of writing this, it is almost clear that most were missile hits by the Indian Air Force jets in what was a highly successful operation showcasing the professionalism of the Indian Armed Forces.

Pakistan that has been warning against any such military action by New Delhi is now claiming civilian deaths with its Army Chief clear that his military will cause ‘grief’ to India, and that retaliation is definite. The Pakistan Defence Minister has gone on television to maintain that Pakistan has no terror camps, and that it has moved far away from mistakes of the past, and that only civilians were killed in the Indian strikes. Whatever be the truth in the fog of war, it is almost certain that the Pakistan Army that is now controlling the country, with the civilian government providing little but a fig leaf, will retaliate in some form or the other.

The television channels on both sides have burst into a frenzy, as has the social media. Humorous memes did try to temper the Pakistan reaction with a ‘what can India do that we have not done to ourselves already’ refrain but these are being overtaken by revenge and hate on both sides. After India’s military attack sober voices are struggling to survive in the waves of hate and anger unleashed all around. This is a pity as war can have tragic repercussions for both the neighbours, and needs sobriety and maturity to be stopped. De-escalation is the need of the hour but given the current environment the odds do not seem to be favouring this despite initial signals that peace might be allowed to prevail.

In the past the US in particular has played the role of mediator. This time around, it is not clear whether US President Donald Trump is interested in preventing an escalation at this stage. When asked about it by reporters in Washington he said it was a “shame” but that India and Pakistan relations had not been good for a long time. He did not say whether it was imperative for both to back off, and ensure that the hostilities are not taken to another level altogether. US Secretary of State Mark Rubio said that he is in touch with both the countries to exercise restraint. India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval has spoken to Rubio, with the details of the conversation of course not known. Many experts presume that given the current US Administration’s preoccupation with funds and finances, a war boosting the infamous American arms industry might not be totally unwelcome. Provided it remains within their ‘limits.’

The work now really needs to be done in Pakistan to ensure there is no retaliation. As given the aggressive ‘tit for tat’ bilateral approach, any such military action will have the potential to escalate the situation into a full blown war. Particularly if civilian lives are lost on the Indian side. Hostilities at the moment have reached the peak, with the two neigbours having stopped over flights, stopped water, pulled out of peace treaties, et al. There is nothing left in the strategic infrastructure to rely on, except perhaps the hotline between the Director Generals of Military Operations. This was used briefly, according to reports, after the terror attack as well.

Trust has broken down completely, and India and Pakistan have crossed the Rubicon. The US can pressure them to sheath their arms — perhaps— but given the signals from Washington this too might not happen in a hurry. In short, the war clouds have gathered into a potential storm over the two countries. In this lies the tragedy.